HOME AFRIKA (Kenya) Market Value
| HAL Stock | 0.35 0.02 5.41% |
| Symbol | HOME |
HOME AFRIKA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to HOME AFRIKA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of HOME AFRIKA.
| 02/04/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in HOME AFRIKA on February 4, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding HOME AFRIKA LTD or generate 0.0% return on investment in HOME AFRIKA over 300 days.
HOME AFRIKA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure HOME AFRIKA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess HOME AFRIKA LTD upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0434 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.77 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.25) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.82 |
HOME AFRIKA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for HOME AFRIKA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as HOME AFRIKA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use HOME AFRIKA historical prices to predict the future HOME AFRIKA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0646 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1505 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.44) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0415 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2373 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HOME AFRIKA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HOME AFRIKA LTD Backtested Returns
At this point, HOME AFRIKA is out of control. HOME AFRIKA LTD holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0017, which attests that the entity had a 0.0017% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for HOME AFRIKA LTD, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out HOME AFRIKA's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2473, risk adjusted performance of 0.0646, and Semi Deviation of 3.6 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0077%. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.37, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, HOME AFRIKA will likely underperform. HOME AFRIKA LTD currently retains a risk of 4.46%. Please check out HOME AFRIKA sortino ratio, skewness, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to decide if HOME AFRIKA will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
HOME AFRIKA LTD has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between HOME AFRIKA time series from 4th of February 2024 to 3rd of July 2024 and 3rd of July 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of HOME AFRIKA LTD price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current HOME AFRIKA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
HOME AFRIKA LTD lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is HOME AFRIKA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting HOME AFRIKA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of HOME AFRIKA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that HOME AFRIKA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
HOME AFRIKA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If HOME AFRIKA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if HOME AFRIKA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in HOME AFRIKA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
HOME AFRIKA Lagged Returns
When evaluating HOME AFRIKA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of HOME AFRIKA stock have on its future price. HOME AFRIKA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, HOME AFRIKA autocorrelation shows the relationship between HOME AFRIKA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in HOME AFRIKA LTD.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |