Happy Forgings (India) Market Value
| HAPPYFORGE | 1,090 7.10 0.65% |
| Symbol | Happy |
Happy Forgings 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Happy Forgings' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Happy Forgings.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Happy Forgings on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Happy Forgings Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Happy Forgings over 30 days. Happy Forgings is related to or competes with State Trading, AUTHUM INVESTMENT, Total Transport, Ortel Communications, Pilani Investment, and Bajaj Holdings. Happy Forgings is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Happy Forgings Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Happy Forgings' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Happy Forgings Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.20) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.48 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.54 |
Happy Forgings Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Happy Forgings' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Happy Forgings' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Happy Forgings historical prices to predict the future Happy Forgings' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.43) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 4.22 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Happy Forgings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Happy Forgings Backtested Returns
Happy Forgings holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.11, which attests that the entity had a -0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Happy Forgings exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Happy Forgings' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09), market risk adjusted performance of 4.23, and Standard Deviation of 1.54 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0459, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Happy Forgings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Happy Forgings is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Happy Forgings has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to check out Happy Forgings' total risk alpha, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the Kurtosis and market facilitation index , to decide if Happy Forgings performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.02 |
Virtually no predictability
Happy Forgings Limited has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Happy Forgings time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Happy Forgings price movement. The serial correlation of 0.02 indicates that only 2.0% of current Happy Forgings price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.02 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 116.53 |
Happy Forgings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Happy Forgings stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Happy Forgings' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Happy Forgings returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Happy Forgings has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Happy Forgings regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Happy Forgings stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Happy Forgings stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Happy Forgings stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Happy Forgings Lagged Returns
When evaluating Happy Forgings' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Happy Forgings stock have on its future price. Happy Forgings autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Happy Forgings autocorrelation shows the relationship between Happy Forgings stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Happy Forgings Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Happy Stock
Happy Forgings financial ratios help investors to determine whether Happy Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Happy with respect to the benefits of owning Happy Forgings security.