Harmony Gold (South Africa) Market Value
| HAR Stock | 17,948 648.00 3.75% |
| Symbol | Harmony |
Harmony Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Harmony Gold's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Harmony Gold.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Harmony Gold on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Harmony Gold Mining or generate 0.0% return on investment in Harmony Gold over 30 days. Harmony Gold is related to or competes with Sibanye Stillwater, and Pan African. More
Harmony Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Harmony Gold's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Harmony Gold Mining upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.05 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.86) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.64 |
Harmony Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Harmony Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Harmony Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Harmony Gold historical prices to predict the future Harmony Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.60) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.72) |
Harmony Gold Mining Backtested Returns
At this point, Harmony Gold is very steady. Harmony Gold Mining holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.001, which attests that the entity had a 0.001% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for Harmony Gold Mining, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Harmony Gold's Standard Deviation of 3.24, market risk adjusted performance of (0.71), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0033%. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.24, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Harmony Gold's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Harmony Gold is expected to be smaller as well. Harmony Gold Mining right now retains a risk of 3.27%. Please check out Harmony Gold value at risk, accumulation distribution, day typical price, as well as the relationship between the skewness and rate of daily change , to decide if Harmony Gold will be following its current trending patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.19 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Harmony Gold Mining has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Harmony Gold time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Harmony Gold Mining price movement. The serial correlation of -0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Harmony Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 330.2 K |
Harmony Gold Mining lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Harmony Gold stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Harmony Gold's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Harmony Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Harmony Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Harmony Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Harmony Gold stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Harmony Gold stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Harmony Gold stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Harmony Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating Harmony Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Harmony Gold stock have on its future price. Harmony Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Harmony Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between Harmony Gold stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Harmony Gold Mining.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Harmony Stock
When determining whether Harmony Gold Mining offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Harmony Gold's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Harmony Gold Mining Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Harmony Gold Mining Stock:Check out Harmony Gold Correlation, Harmony Gold Volatility and Harmony Gold Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Harmony Gold. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Harmony Gold technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.