Hero Supermarket (Indonesia) Market Value
| HERO Stock | IDR 595.00 5.00 0.83% |
| Symbol | Hero |
Hero Supermarket 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hero Supermarket's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hero Supermarket.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hero Supermarket on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hero Supermarket Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hero Supermarket over 30 days. Hero Supermarket is related to or competes with Kalbe Farma, and Akr Corporindo. PT Hero Supermarket Tbk engages in the retail business primarily in Indonesia More
Hero Supermarket Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hero Supermarket's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hero Supermarket Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.01 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.51) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.72 |
Hero Supermarket Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hero Supermarket's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hero Supermarket's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hero Supermarket historical prices to predict the future Hero Supermarket's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.53) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.88) |
Hero Supermarket Tbk Backtested Returns
Hero Supermarket Tbk holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0683, which attests that the entity had a -0.0683% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Hero Supermarket Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Hero Supermarket's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (3.87), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Standard Deviation of 2.57 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0317, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Hero Supermarket's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Hero Supermarket is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Hero Supermarket Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.18%. Please make sure to check out Hero Supermarket's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Hero Supermarket Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.48 |
Modest reverse predictability
Hero Supermarket Tbk has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hero Supermarket time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hero Supermarket Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.48 indicates that about 48.0% of current Hero Supermarket price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.48 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 428.93 |
Hero Supermarket Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hero Supermarket stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hero Supermarket's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hero Supermarket returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hero Supermarket has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hero Supermarket regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hero Supermarket stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hero Supermarket stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hero Supermarket stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hero Supermarket Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hero Supermarket's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hero Supermarket stock have on its future price. Hero Supermarket autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hero Supermarket autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hero Supermarket stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hero Supermarket Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Hero Supermarket financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hero Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hero with respect to the benefits of owning Hero Supermarket security.