Hanjaya Mandala (Indonesia) Market Value
| HMSP Stock | IDR 660.00 10.00 1.49% |
| Symbol | Hanjaya |
Hanjaya Mandala 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hanjaya Mandala's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hanjaya Mandala.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hanjaya Mandala on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hanjaya Mandala over 30 days. Hanjaya Mandala is related to or competes with Gudang Garam, Unilever Indonesia, Indofood Cbp, PT Indofood, and Astra International. PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and trades in cigarettes in Indonesia More
Hanjaya Mandala Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hanjaya Mandala's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.03 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.72 |
Hanjaya Mandala Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hanjaya Mandala's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hanjaya Mandala's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hanjaya Mandala historical prices to predict the future Hanjaya Mandala's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.55) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.20) |
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Backtested Returns
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0522, which attests that the entity had a -0.0522% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Hanjaya Mandala's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.19), risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Standard Deviation of 2.34 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.15, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Hanjaya Mandala's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Hanjaya Mandala is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna has a negative expected return of -0.12%. Please make sure to check out Hanjaya Mandala's total risk alpha, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.67 |
Good predictability
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hanjaya Mandala time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna price movement. The serial correlation of 0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Hanjaya Mandala price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 155.79 |
Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hanjaya Mandala stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hanjaya Mandala's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hanjaya Mandala returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hanjaya Mandala has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hanjaya Mandala regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hanjaya Mandala stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hanjaya Mandala stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hanjaya Mandala stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hanjaya Mandala Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hanjaya Mandala's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hanjaya Mandala stock have on its future price. Hanjaya Mandala autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hanjaya Mandala autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hanjaya Mandala stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Hanjaya Mandala financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hanjaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hanjaya with respect to the benefits of owning Hanjaya Mandala security.