First Trust Horizon ETF Market Value
| HSMV ETF | USD 37.76 0.13 0.35% |
| Symbol | First Trust |
First Trust's market price and NAV each provide useful but distinct information about the fund. Assessment of First Trust considers how efficiently the fund delivers its target exposure relative to its cost.
Price and NAV for First Trust are related but not identical, and they can diverge during volatile periods. Context can include expense ratio, holdings concentration, performance attribution, and liquidity measures.
What-If Analysis
Historical what-if analysis for First Trust Horizon is useful because it converts abstract timing questions into a structured review of past performance under changing entry and holding periods. In practice, this review provides context for deciding whether First Trust's historical reward profile was stable enough to support the current thesis.
| 02/06/2026 |
| 05/07/2026 |
A 0.00 entry into First Trust on February 6, 2026 held to the present would produce 0.00 in net return. This amounts to a 0.0% return on investment in First Trust in total across a 90 day span. First Trust shares sector or business overlap with First Trust, OneAscent Small, Overlay Shares, Innovator ETFs, Global X, Innovator Small, and Franklin International. Under normal market conditions, the fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing at least 80 percent of i... More
First Trust Momentum Range Indicators Dashboard
Directional momentum for First Trust is captured through indicators that track upside and downside price ranges. Momentum distribution across the range reveals whether the current trend is accelerating or fading.
| Downside Deviation | 0.71 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.01 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | -0.92 | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.09 |
First Trust Market Risk Indicators Summary
First Trust market risk signals reflect the scope and pattern of historical return variability. Value-at-risk estimates translate volatility into a probability-weighted loss threshold for a given confidence level.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0129 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | -0.003 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | -0.01 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | -0.01 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.004 |
Mean reversion in First Trust's price occurs when temporary dislocations correct back toward its historical intrinsic value estimate. This tendency of First Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion.
Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0129 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.014 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.534 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6655 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 0.71 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 5724.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6893 | |||
| Variance | 0.4751 | |||
| Information Ratio | -0.01 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | -0.003 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | -0.01 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | -0.01 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.004 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | -0.92 | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5041 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4429 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.55 | |||
| Skewness | 0.0761 | |||
| Kurtosis | 0.5361 |
First Trust Horizon Backtested Returns
First Trust continues to exhibit a very low volatility profile over the designated horizon. It maintains a Sharpe Ratio of close to zero, suggesting a return-to-volatility ratio of close to zero. Indicator analysis identified thirty signals affecting performance dispersion. Please examine metrics such as Downside Deviation of 0.71, coefficient of variation of 5724.84, and mean deviation of 0.534 to validate volatility assumptions. The ETF maintains a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.51, which attests to generally lower market sensitivity than the broad market. First Trust moves in the same direction as the market but with less intensity, offering a degree of cushion during selloffs.
Auto-correlation | -0.5 |
Modest reverse predictability
Comparing First Trust's price behavior from 6th of February 2026 to 23rd of March 2026 with the period from 23rd of March 2026 to 7th of May 2026 produces modest reverse predictability. The stronger the relationship between the current interval and its lagged values, the more accurately future price behavior of First Trust Horizon may be projected. The coefficient of -0.5 links about 50.0% of First Trust's present price action to its own historical movements. Given that First Trust Horizon has negative autocorrelation for the selected time horizon, market participants may evaluate potential contrarian price behavior over comparable future intervals.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.5 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.62 |