Arca Gold Bugs Index Market Value
| HUI Index | 301.10 0.98 0.33% |
| Symbol | ARCA |
ARCA Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ARCA Gold's index what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ARCA Gold.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ARCA Gold on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ARCA Gold BUGS or generate 0.0% return on investment in ARCA Gold over 30 days.
ARCA Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ARCA Gold's index current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ARCA Gold BUGS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.92 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.76 |
ARCA Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ARCA Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ARCA Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ARCA Gold historical prices to predict the future ARCA Gold's volatility.ARCA Gold BUGS Backtested Returns
ARCA Gold BUGS retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0089, which signifies that the index had a 0.0089% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty technical indicators for ARCA Gold, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. The index owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. the returns on MARKET and ARCA Gold are completely uncorrelated.
Auto-correlation | 0.47 |
Average predictability
ARCA Gold BUGS has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ARCA Gold time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ARCA Gold BUGS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current ARCA Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.47 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 11.77 |
ARCA Gold BUGS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ARCA Gold index's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ARCA Gold's index expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ARCA Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ARCA Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the index is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ARCA Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ARCA Gold index is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ARCA Gold index is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ARCA Gold index over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ARCA Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating ARCA Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ARCA Gold index have on its future price. ARCA Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ARCA Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between ARCA Gold index current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ARCA Gold BUGS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |