Poplar Forest Nerstone Fund Market Value
| IPFCX Fund | USD 31.25 0.12 0.39% |
| Symbol | Poplar |
Poplar Forest 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Poplar Forest's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Poplar Forest.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Poplar Forest on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Poplar Forest Nerstone or generate 0.0% return on investment in Poplar Forest over 30 days. Poplar Forest is related to or competes with Poplar Forest, Poplar Forest, Small Cap, Gabelli Equity, Multimanager Lifestyle, Mfs Aggressive, and Davidson Multi-cap. The fund seeks to deliver superior, risk-adjusted returns over full market cycles, by building a balanced portfolio of d... More
Poplar Forest Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Poplar Forest's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Poplar Forest Nerstone upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.3538 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.14) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8011 |
Poplar Forest Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Poplar Forest's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Poplar Forest's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Poplar Forest historical prices to predict the future Poplar Forest's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.085 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.19) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0909 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Poplar Forest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Poplar Forest Nerstone Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Poplar Mutual Fund to be very steady. Poplar Forest Nerstone maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.11, which implies the entity had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Poplar Forest Nerstone, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Poplar Forest's Coefficient Of Variation of 842.34, risk adjusted performance of 0.085, and Semi Deviation of 0.2513 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0525%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.52, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Poplar Forest's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Poplar Forest is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.82 |
Very good predictability
Poplar Forest Nerstone has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Poplar Forest time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Poplar Forest Nerstone price movement. The serial correlation of 0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current Poplar Forest price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.74 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.13 |
Poplar Forest Nerstone lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Poplar Forest mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Poplar Forest's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Poplar Forest returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Poplar Forest has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Poplar Forest regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Poplar Forest mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Poplar Forest mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Poplar Forest mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Poplar Forest Lagged Returns
When evaluating Poplar Forest's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Poplar Forest mutual fund have on its future price. Poplar Forest autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Poplar Forest autocorrelation shows the relationship between Poplar Forest mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Poplar Forest Nerstone.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Poplar Mutual Fund
Poplar Forest financial ratios help investors to determine whether Poplar Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Poplar with respect to the benefits of owning Poplar Forest security.
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