JERICHO OIL (Germany) Market Value
| JLM Stock | 0.08 0.01 6.29% |
| Symbol | JERICHO |
JERICHO OIL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to JERICHO OIL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of JERICHO OIL.
| 12/09/2022 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in JERICHO OIL on December 9, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding JERICHO OIL or generate 0.0% return on investment in JERICHO OIL over 720 days.
JERICHO OIL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure JERICHO OIL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess JERICHO OIL upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 9.51 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0183 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 45.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (15.13) | |||
| Potential Upside | 16.55 |
JERICHO OIL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for JERICHO OIL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as JERICHO OIL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use JERICHO OIL historical prices to predict the future JERICHO OIL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0333 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1207 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.26) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.019 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2009 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of JERICHO OIL's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
JERICHO OIL Backtested Returns
JERICHO OIL appears to be out of control, given 3 months investment horizon. JERICHO OIL holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.055, which attests that the entity had a 0.055% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. By analyzing JERICHO OIL's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.54% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize JERICHO OIL's market risk adjusted performance of 0.2109, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0333 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, JERICHO OIL holds a performance score of 4. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.5, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, JERICHO OIL will likely underperform. Please check JERICHO OIL's maximum drawdown, accumulation distribution, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the semi variance and day typical price , to make a quick decision on whether JERICHO OIL's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.66 |
Good predictability
JERICHO OIL has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between JERICHO OIL time series from 9th of December 2022 to 4th of December 2023 and 4th of December 2023 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of JERICHO OIL price movement. The serial correlation of 0.66 indicates that around 66.0% of current JERICHO OIL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.66 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
JERICHO OIL lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is JERICHO OIL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting JERICHO OIL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of JERICHO OIL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that JERICHO OIL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
JERICHO OIL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If JERICHO OIL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if JERICHO OIL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in JERICHO OIL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
JERICHO OIL Lagged Returns
When evaluating JERICHO OIL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of JERICHO OIL stock have on its future price. JERICHO OIL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, JERICHO OIL autocorrelation shows the relationship between JERICHO OIL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in JERICHO OIL.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for JERICHO Stock Analysis
When running JERICHO OIL's price analysis, check to measure JERICHO OIL's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy JERICHO OIL is operating at the current time. Most of JERICHO OIL's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of JERICHO OIL's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move JERICHO OIL's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of JERICHO OIL to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.