Kimia Farma (Indonesia) Market Value
| KAEF Stock | IDR 605.00 5.00 0.82% |
| Symbol | Kimia |
Kimia Farma 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Kimia Farma's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Kimia Farma.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Kimia Farma on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Kimia Farma Persero or generate 0.0% return on investment in Kimia Farma over 30 days. Kimia Farma is related to or competes with Matahari Department, Surya Citra, and Lippo Karawaci. PT Kimia Farma Tbk produces and sells medicines, herbal medicines, iodine, salts, quinine and their derivative products,... More
Kimia Farma Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Kimia Farma's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Kimia Farma Persero upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.23) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.52 |
Kimia Farma Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Kimia Farma's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Kimia Farma's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Kimia Farma historical prices to predict the future Kimia Farma's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.64) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.62) |
Kimia Farma Persero Backtested Returns
Kimia Farma Persero has Sharpe Ratio of -0.16, which conveys that the firm had a -0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Kimia Farma exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Kimia Farma's Mean Deviation of 1.41, standard deviation of 1.95, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.2, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Kimia Farma's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Kimia Farma is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Kimia Farma Persero has a negative expected return of -0.31%. Please make sure to verify Kimia Farma's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Kimia Farma Persero performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.63 |
Very good reverse predictability
Kimia Farma Persero has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Kimia Farma time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Kimia Farma Persero price movement. The serial correlation of -0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Kimia Farma price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 47.25 |
Kimia Farma Persero lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Kimia Farma stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Kimia Farma's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Kimia Farma returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Kimia Farma has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Kimia Farma regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Kimia Farma stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Kimia Farma stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Kimia Farma stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Kimia Farma Lagged Returns
When evaluating Kimia Farma's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Kimia Farma stock have on its future price. Kimia Farma autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Kimia Farma autocorrelation shows the relationship between Kimia Farma stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Kimia Farma Persero.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Kimia Farma financial ratios help investors to determine whether Kimia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Kimia with respect to the benefits of owning Kimia Farma security.