Lucky Cement (Pakistan) Market Value
| LUCK Stock | 1,027 14.28 1.37% |
| Symbol | Lucky |
Lucky Cement 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Lucky Cement's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Lucky Cement.
| 10/29/2023 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Lucky Cement on October 29, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Lucky Cement or generate 0.0% return on investment in Lucky Cement over 390 days. Lucky Cement is related to or competes with Habib Bank, National Bank, United Bank, MCB Bank, Allied Bank, Meezan Bank, and Bank Al. More
Lucky Cement Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Lucky Cement's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Lucky Cement upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1489 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.76 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.95) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.06 |
Lucky Cement Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Lucky Cement's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Lucky Cement's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Lucky Cement historical prices to predict the future Lucky Cement's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1712 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.336 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1289 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1956 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 55.18 |
Lucky Cement Backtested Returns
Lucky Cement appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Lucky Cement has Sharpe Ratio of 0.22, which conveys that the firm had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Lucky Cement, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Lucky Cement's Downside Deviation of 1.21, risk adjusted performance of 0.1712, and Mean Deviation of 1.26 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Lucky Cement holds a performance score of 17. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0061, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Lucky Cement's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Lucky Cement is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Lucky Cement's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Lucky Cement's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.70 |
Good predictability
Lucky Cement has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Lucky Cement time series from 29th of October 2023 to 11th of May 2024 and 11th of May 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Lucky Cement price movement. The serial correlation of 0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Lucky Cement price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2786.5 |
Lucky Cement lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Lucky Cement stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Lucky Cement's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Lucky Cement returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Lucky Cement has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Lucky Cement regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Lucky Cement stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Lucky Cement stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Lucky Cement stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Lucky Cement Lagged Returns
When evaluating Lucky Cement's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Lucky Cement stock have on its future price. Lucky Cement autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Lucky Cement autocorrelation shows the relationship between Lucky Cement stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Lucky Cement.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Lucky Cement
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Lucky Cement position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Lucky Cement will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Lucky Stock
| 0.83 | OGDC | Oil and Gas | PairCorr |
| 0.82 | PSO | Pakistan State Oil | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | PPL | Pakistan Petroleum | PairCorr |
| 0.78 | FFC | Fauji Fertilizer | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Lucky Cement could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Lucky Cement when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Lucky Cement - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Lucky Cement to buy it.
The correlation of Lucky Cement is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Lucky Cement moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Lucky Cement moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Lucky Cement can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Lucky Stock
Lucky Cement financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lucky Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lucky with respect to the benefits of owning Lucky Cement security.