The Monarch Cement Stock Market Value
| MCEM Stock | USD 218.50 1.50 0.68% |
| Symbol | Monarch |
Monarch Cement 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Monarch Cement's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Monarch Cement.
| 12/19/2024 |
| 01/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Monarch Cement on December 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Monarch Cement or generate 0.0% return on investment in Monarch Cement over 30 days. Monarch Cement is related to or competes with Eagle Materials, Summit Materials, Cementos Pacasmayo, Loma Negra, United States, James Hardie, and Lafargeholcim. The Monarch Cement Company manufactures and sells portland cement in the United States More
Monarch Cement Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Monarch Cement's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Monarch Cement upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1073 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.48 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.91) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.11 |
Monarch Cement Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Monarch Cement's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Monarch Cement's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Monarch Cement historical prices to predict the future Monarch Cement's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1086 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2208 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1731 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1161 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.94) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Monarch Cement's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Monarch Cement Backtested Returns
Monarch Cement appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Monarch Cement has Sharpe Ratio of 0.12, which conveys that the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Monarch Cement, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Monarch Cement's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1086, market risk adjusted performance of (0.93), and Downside Deviation of 1.69 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Monarch Cement holds a performance score of 9. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.23, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Monarch Cement are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Monarch Cement is likely to outperform the market. Please check Monarch Cement's jensen alpha, semi variance, day typical price, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether Monarch Cement's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.75 |
Good predictability
The Monarch Cement has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Monarch Cement time series from 19th of December 2024 to 3rd of January 2025 and 3rd of January 2025 to 18th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Monarch Cement price movement. The serial correlation of 0.75 indicates that around 75.0% of current Monarch Cement price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.75 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.34 |
Monarch Cement lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Monarch Cement pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Monarch Cement's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Monarch Cement returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Monarch Cement has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Monarch Cement regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Monarch Cement pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Monarch Cement pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Monarch Cement pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Monarch Cement Lagged Returns
When evaluating Monarch Cement's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Monarch Cement pink sheet have on its future price. Monarch Cement autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Monarch Cement autocorrelation shows the relationship between Monarch Cement pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Monarch Cement.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Monarch Cement financial ratios help investors to determine whether Monarch Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Monarch with respect to the benefits of owning Monarch Cement security.