MELIA HOTELS (Germany) Market Value
| MEL Stock | 6.92 0.17 2.52% |
| Symbol | MELIA |
MELIA HOTELS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MELIA HOTELS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MELIA HOTELS.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
MELIA HOTELS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MELIA HOTELS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MELIA HOTELS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.8 |
MELIA HOTELS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MELIA HOTELS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MELIA HOTELS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MELIA HOTELS historical prices to predict the future MELIA HOTELS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0554 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0771 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.84 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MELIA HOTELS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MELIA HOTELS Backtested Returns
Currently, MELIA HOTELS is not too volatile. MELIA HOTELS has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0894, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0894% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for MELIA HOTELS, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify MELIA HOTELS's mean deviation of 0.998, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0554 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%. MELIA HOTELS has a performance score of 7 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0207, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, MELIA HOTELS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding MELIA HOTELS is expected to be smaller as well. MELIA HOTELS now secures a risk of 1.39%. Please verify MELIA HOTELS downside variance, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and skewness , to decide if MELIA HOTELS will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.93 |
Near perfect reversele predictability
MELIA HOTELS has near perfect reversele predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MELIA HOTELS time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MELIA HOTELS price movement. The serial correlation of -0.93 indicates that approximately 93.0% of current MELIA HOTELS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.93 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.86 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
MELIA HOTELS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MELIA HOTELS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MELIA HOTELS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MELIA HOTELS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MELIA HOTELS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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MELIA HOTELS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MELIA HOTELS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MELIA HOTELS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MELIA HOTELS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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MELIA HOTELS Lagged Returns
When evaluating MELIA HOTELS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MELIA HOTELS stock have on its future price. MELIA HOTELS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MELIA HOTELS autocorrelation shows the relationship between MELIA HOTELS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MELIA HOTELS.
Regressed Prices |
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Additional Tools for MELIA Stock Analysis
When running MELIA HOTELS's price analysis, check to measure MELIA HOTELS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MELIA HOTELS is operating at the current time. Most of MELIA HOTELS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MELIA HOTELS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MELIA HOTELS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MELIA HOTELS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.