Marathon Petroleum (Germany) Market Value
| MPN Stock | EUR 146.56 0.54 0.37% |
| Symbol | Marathon |
Marathon Petroleum 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Marathon Petroleum's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Marathon Petroleum.
| 02/09/2023 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Marathon Petroleum on February 9, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Marathon Petroleum Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Marathon Petroleum over 660 days. Marathon Petroleum is related to or competes with Superior Plus, NMI Holdings, Origin Agritech, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, NorAm Drilling, Talanx AG, and Identiv. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in refining, marketing, retailing, and transport... More
Marathon Petroleum Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Marathon Petroleum's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Marathon Petroleum Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.83 |
Marathon Petroleum Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Marathon Petroleum's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Marathon Petroleum's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Marathon Petroleum historical prices to predict the future Marathon Petroleum's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.40) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.21) |
Marathon Petroleum Corp Backtested Returns
Marathon Petroleum Corp has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0467, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0467% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Marathon Petroleum exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Marathon Petroleum's Mean Deviation of 1.47, risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Standard Deviation of 2.1 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.26, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Marathon Petroleum's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Marathon Petroleum is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Marathon Petroleum Corp has a negative expected return of -0.0959%. Please make sure to verify Marathon Petroleum's daily balance of power, price action indicator, and the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if Marathon Petroleum Corp performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.62 |
Very good reverse predictability
Marathon Petroleum Corp has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Marathon Petroleum time series from 9th of February 2023 to 5th of January 2024 and 5th of January 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Marathon Petroleum Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Marathon Petroleum price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 194.72 |
Marathon Petroleum Corp lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Marathon Petroleum stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Marathon Petroleum's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Marathon Petroleum returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Marathon Petroleum has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Marathon Petroleum regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Marathon Petroleum stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Marathon Petroleum stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Marathon Petroleum stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Marathon Petroleum Lagged Returns
When evaluating Marathon Petroleum's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Marathon Petroleum stock have on its future price. Marathon Petroleum autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Marathon Petroleum autocorrelation shows the relationship between Marathon Petroleum stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Marathon Petroleum Corp.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Marathon Stock
When determining whether Marathon Petroleum Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Marathon Petroleum's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Marathon Petroleum Corp Stock:Check out Marathon Petroleum Correlation, Marathon Petroleum Volatility and Marathon Petroleum Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Marathon Petroleum. You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Marathon Petroleum technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.