Multi Spunindo (Indonesia) Market Value
| MSJA Stock | 350.00 10.00 2.78% |
| Symbol | Multi |
Multi Spunindo 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Multi Spunindo's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Multi Spunindo.
| 09/02/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Multi Spunindo on September 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Multi Spunindo Jaya or generate 0.0% return on investment in Multi Spunindo over 90 days.
Multi Spunindo Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Multi Spunindo's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Multi Spunindo Jaya upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 24.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.55) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.4 |
Multi Spunindo Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Multi Spunindo's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Multi Spunindo's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Multi Spunindo historical prices to predict the future Multi Spunindo's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.82) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.11) |
Multi Spunindo Jaya Backtested Returns
As of now, Multi Stock is very steady. Multi Spunindo Jaya has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0121, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0121% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-four technical indicators for Multi Spunindo, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Multi Spunindo's Mean Deviation of 2.59, standard deviation of 4.06, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02) to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0478%. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0666, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Multi Spunindo's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Multi Spunindo is expected to be smaller as well. Multi Spunindo Jaya right now secures a risk of 3.95%. Please verify Multi Spunindo Jaya maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Multi Spunindo Jaya will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
Multi Spunindo Jaya has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Multi Spunindo time series from 2nd of September 2024 to 17th of October 2024 and 17th of October 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Multi Spunindo Jaya price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Multi Spunindo price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 514.48 |
Multi Spunindo Jaya lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Multi Spunindo stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Multi Spunindo's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Multi Spunindo returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Multi Spunindo has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Multi Spunindo regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Multi Spunindo stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Multi Spunindo stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Multi Spunindo stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Multi Spunindo Lagged Returns
When evaluating Multi Spunindo's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Multi Spunindo stock have on its future price. Multi Spunindo autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Multi Spunindo autocorrelation shows the relationship between Multi Spunindo stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Multi Spunindo Jaya.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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