MotorCycle Holdings (Australia) Market Value
| MTO Stock | 1.62 0.01 0.61% |
| Symbol | MotorCycle |
MotorCycle Holdings 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MotorCycle Holdings' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MotorCycle Holdings.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MotorCycle Holdings on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MotorCycle Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in MotorCycle Holdings over 30 days. MotorCycle Holdings is related to or competes with Cleanaway Waste, WiseTech Global, Janison Education, Richmond Vanadium, Vulcan Steel, and Ras Technology. MotorCycle Holdings is entity of Australia More
MotorCycle Holdings Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MotorCycle Holdings' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MotorCycle Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1467 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.34 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.85 |
MotorCycle Holdings Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MotorCycle Holdings' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MotorCycle Holdings' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MotorCycle Holdings historical prices to predict the future MotorCycle Holdings' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1566 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5069 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0914 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1895 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 5.19 |
MotorCycle Holdings Backtested Returns
MotorCycle Holdings appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. MotorCycle Holdings has Sharpe Ratio of 0.19, which conveys that the firm had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing MotorCycle Holdings' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.5% is justified by implied risk. Please exercise MotorCycle Holdings' Mean Deviation of 1.72, downside deviation of 2.1, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1566 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, MotorCycle Holdings holds a performance score of 14. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.1, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, MotorCycle Holdings' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding MotorCycle Holdings is expected to be smaller as well. Please check MotorCycle Holdings' sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether MotorCycle Holdings' current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.35 |
Poor reverse predictability
MotorCycle Holdings has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MotorCycle Holdings time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MotorCycle Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of -0.35 indicates that nearly 35.0% of current MotorCycle Holdings price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.35 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.12 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
MotorCycle Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MotorCycle Holdings stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MotorCycle Holdings' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MotorCycle Holdings returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MotorCycle Holdings has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
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MotorCycle Holdings regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MotorCycle Holdings stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MotorCycle Holdings stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MotorCycle Holdings stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MotorCycle Holdings Lagged Returns
When evaluating MotorCycle Holdings' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MotorCycle Holdings stock have on its future price. MotorCycle Holdings autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MotorCycle Holdings autocorrelation shows the relationship between MotorCycle Holdings stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MotorCycle Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for MotorCycle Stock Analysis
When running MotorCycle Holdings' price analysis, check to measure MotorCycle Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MotorCycle Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of MotorCycle Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MotorCycle Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MotorCycle Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MotorCycle Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.