NATIONAL BREWERIES (Zambia) Market Value
| NATBREW Stock | 3.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | NATIONAL |
NATIONAL BREWERIES 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NATIONAL BREWERIES's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NATIONAL BREWERIES.
| 08/28/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NATIONAL BREWERIES on August 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in NATIONAL BREWERIES over 90 days.
NATIONAL BREWERIES Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NATIONAL BREWERIES's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.21) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 21.3 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.24) |
NATIONAL BREWERIES Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NATIONAL BREWERIES's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NATIONAL BREWERIES's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NATIONAL BREWERIES historical prices to predict the future NATIONAL BREWERIES's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.53) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.87) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.58) |
NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC Backtested Returns
NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC has Sharpe Ratio of -0.16, which conveys that the company had a -0.16% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. NATIONAL BREWERIES exposes seventeen different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify NATIONAL BREWERIES's standard deviation of 2.72, and Mean Deviation of 0.8268 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.75, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, NATIONAL BREWERIES's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding NATIONAL BREWERIES is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC has a negative expected return of -0.45%. Please make sure to verify NATIONAL BREWERIES's risk adjusted performance, variance, as well as the relationship between the Variance and skewness , to decide if NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.47 |
Average predictability
NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NATIONAL BREWERIES time series from 28th of August 2024 to 12th of October 2024 and 12th of October 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current NATIONAL BREWERIES price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.47 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.25 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.14 |
NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NATIONAL BREWERIES stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NATIONAL BREWERIES's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NATIONAL BREWERIES returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NATIONAL BREWERIES has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NATIONAL BREWERIES regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NATIONAL BREWERIES stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NATIONAL BREWERIES stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NATIONAL BREWERIES stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NATIONAL BREWERIES Lagged Returns
When evaluating NATIONAL BREWERIES's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NATIONAL BREWERIES stock have on its future price. NATIONAL BREWERIES autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NATIONAL BREWERIES autocorrelation shows the relationship between NATIONAL BREWERIES stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NATIONAL BREWERIES PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for NATIONAL Stock Analysis
When running NATIONAL BREWERIES's price analysis, check to measure NATIONAL BREWERIES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NATIONAL BREWERIES is operating at the current time. Most of NATIONAL BREWERIES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NATIONAL BREWERIES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NATIONAL BREWERIES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NATIONAL BREWERIES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.