NATION MEDIA (Uganda) Market Value
| NMG Stock | 426.30 21.81 5.39% |
| Symbol | NATION |
NATION MEDIA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NATION MEDIA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NATION MEDIA.
| 11/30/2023 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NATION MEDIA on November 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NATION MEDIA GROUP or generate 0.0% return on investment in NATION MEDIA over 360 days.
NATION MEDIA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NATION MEDIA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NATION MEDIA GROUP upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.31 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.82) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.14 |
NATION MEDIA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NATION MEDIA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NATION MEDIA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NATION MEDIA historical prices to predict the future NATION MEDIA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0188 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.42) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.049 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NATION MEDIA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NATION MEDIA GROUP Backtested Returns
At this point, NATION MEDIA is very steady. NATION MEDIA GROUP has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0178, which conveys that the company had a 0.0178% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for NATION MEDIA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please verify NATION MEDIA's mean deviation of 1.95, and Downside Deviation of 2.72 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0517%. NATION MEDIA has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.68, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, NATION MEDIA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding NATION MEDIA is expected to be smaller as well. NATION MEDIA GROUP currently secures a risk of 2.9%. Please verify NATION MEDIA GROUP expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to decide if NATION MEDIA GROUP will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.71 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
NATION MEDIA GROUP has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NATION MEDIA time series from 30th of November 2023 to 28th of May 2024 and 28th of May 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NATION MEDIA GROUP price movement. The serial correlation of -0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current NATION MEDIA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2822.28 |
NATION MEDIA GROUP lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NATION MEDIA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NATION MEDIA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NATION MEDIA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NATION MEDIA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NATION MEDIA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NATION MEDIA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NATION MEDIA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NATION MEDIA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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NATION MEDIA Lagged Returns
When evaluating NATION MEDIA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NATION MEDIA stock have on its future price. NATION MEDIA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NATION MEDIA autocorrelation shows the relationship between NATION MEDIA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NATION MEDIA GROUP.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |