Nusa Palapa (Indonesia) Market Value
| NPGF Stock | IDR 34.00 1.00 2.86% |
| Symbol | Nusa |
Nusa Palapa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nusa Palapa's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nusa Palapa.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nusa Palapa on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nusa Palapa Gemilang or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nusa Palapa over 30 days. Nusa Palapa is related to or competes with Saraswanti Anugerah, Berkah Beton, Triputra Agro, PT Sunter, and Ladangbaja Murni. PT Nusa Palapa Gemilang Tbk produces and sells granule NPK fertilizers and granule micro fertilizers in Indonesia More
Nusa Palapa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nusa Palapa's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nusa Palapa Gemilang upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.18 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.71) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.33 |
Nusa Palapa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nusa Palapa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nusa Palapa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nusa Palapa historical prices to predict the future Nusa Palapa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.79) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3589 |
Nusa Palapa Gemilang Backtested Returns
Nusa Palapa Gemilang has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0469, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0469% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Nusa Palapa exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Nusa Palapa's Standard Deviation of 4.19, mean deviation of 2.94, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.37, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Nusa Palapa are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Nusa Palapa is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Nusa Palapa Gemilang has a negative expected return of -0.18%. Please make sure to verify Nusa Palapa's value at risk, skewness, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and kurtosis , to decide if Nusa Palapa Gemilang performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.64 |
Good predictability
Nusa Palapa Gemilang has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nusa Palapa time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nusa Palapa Gemilang price movement. The serial correlation of 0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current Nusa Palapa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.88 |
Nusa Palapa Gemilang lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nusa Palapa stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nusa Palapa's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nusa Palapa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nusa Palapa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nusa Palapa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nusa Palapa stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nusa Palapa stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nusa Palapa stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nusa Palapa Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nusa Palapa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nusa Palapa stock have on its future price. Nusa Palapa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nusa Palapa autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nusa Palapa stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nusa Palapa Gemilang.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Nusa Palapa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nusa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nusa with respect to the benefits of owning Nusa Palapa security.