Nampak (South Africa) Market Value
| NPK Stock | 43,632 132.00 0.30% |
| Symbol | Nampak |
Nampak 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nampak's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nampak.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Nampak on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nampak or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nampak over 30 days. Nampak is related to or competes with Safari Investments, Blue Label, Trematon Capital, HomeChoice Investments, ABSA Bank, Deneb Investments, and Harmony Gold. More
Nampak Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nampak's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nampak upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.65 | |||
| Information Ratio | 3.0E-4 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.05 |
Nampak Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nampak's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nampak's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nampak historical prices to predict the future Nampak's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0508 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.158 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 3.0E-4 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.55) |
Nampak Backtested Returns
At this point, Nampak is very steady. Nampak has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0598, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0598% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Nampak, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Nampak's Downside Deviation of 2.65, mean deviation of 1.42, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0508 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Nampak has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.23, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Nampak are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Nampak is likely to outperform the market. Nampak right now secures a risk of 2.41%. Please verify Nampak value at risk, expected short fall, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and downside variance , to decide if Nampak will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.75 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Nampak has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nampak time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nampak price movement. The serial correlation of -0.75 indicates that around 75.0% of current Nampak price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.75 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.65 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.9 M |
Nampak lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Nampak stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nampak's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nampak returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nampak has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Nampak regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nampak stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nampak stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nampak stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Nampak Lagged Returns
When evaluating Nampak's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nampak stock have on its future price. Nampak autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nampak autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nampak stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nampak.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Nampak Stock
Nampak financial ratios help investors to determine whether Nampak Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Nampak with respect to the benefits of owning Nampak security.