Novavis Group (Poland) Market Value
| NVG Stock | 1.68 0.04 2.33% |
| Symbol | Novavis |
Novavis Group 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novavis Group's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novavis Group.
| 10/25/2024 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novavis Group on October 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novavis Group SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novavis Group over 30 days. Novavis Group is related to or competes with Pyramid Games, Intersport Polska, Monnari Trade, Movie Games, and MCI Management. More
Novavis Group Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novavis Group's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novavis Group SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.27) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.79 |
Novavis Group Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novavis Group's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novavis Group's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novavis Group historical prices to predict the future Novavis Group's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.14) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.59) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.75 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novavis Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novavis Group SA Backtested Returns
Novavis Group SA has Sharpe Ratio of -0.18, which conveys that the firm had a -0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Novavis Group exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Novavis Group's Standard Deviation of 1.64, risk adjusted performance of (0.14), and Mean Deviation of 1.28 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.19, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Novavis Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Novavis Group is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Novavis Group SA has a negative expected return of -0.28%. Please make sure to verify Novavis Group's accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the day typical price and relative strength index , to decide if Novavis Group SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.05 |
Virtually no predictability
Novavis Group SA has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novavis Group time series from 25th of October 2024 to 9th of November 2024 and 9th of November 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novavis Group SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.05 indicates that only as little as 5.0% of current Novavis Group price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.05 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Novavis Group SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novavis Group stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novavis Group's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novavis Group returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novavis Group has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novavis Group regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novavis Group stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novavis Group stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novavis Group stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novavis Group Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novavis Group's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novavis Group stock have on its future price. Novavis Group autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novavis Group autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novavis Group stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novavis Group SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Novavis Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Novavis Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Novavis Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Novavis Stock
| 0.74 | SAN | Banco Santander SA | PairCorr |
| 0.49 | CEZ | CEZ as | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | ENA | Enea SA | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | LPP | LPP SA | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | JSW | Jastrzebska Spotka Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Novavis Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Novavis Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Novavis Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Novavis Group SA to buy it.
The correlation of Novavis Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Novavis Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Novavis Group SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Novavis Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Novavis Stock Analysis
When running Novavis Group's price analysis, check to measure Novavis Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novavis Group is operating at the current time. Most of Novavis Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novavis Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novavis Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novavis Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.