Novita SA (Poland) Market Value
| NVT Stock | 124.00 2.50 2.06% |
| Symbol | Novita |
Novita SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novita SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novita SA.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novita SA on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novita SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novita SA over 540 days. Novita SA is related to or competes with Pyramid Games, True Games, Carlson Investments, Ultimate Games, and Live Motion. More
Novita SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novita SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novita SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0563 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.47 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.82) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.74 |
Novita SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novita SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novita SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novita SA historical prices to predict the future Novita SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1183 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1998 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0563 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.76) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novita SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novita SA Backtested Returns
Currently, Novita SA is very steady. Novita SA has Sharpe Ratio of 0.12, which conveys that the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Novita SA, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Novita SA's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1183, downside deviation of 1.36, and Mean Deviation of 1.02 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Novita SA has a performance score of 9 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0695, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Novita SA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Novita SA is likely to outperform the market. Novita SA right now secures a risk of 1.37%. Please verify Novita SA downside variance, as well as the relationship between the accumulation distribution and market facilitation index , to decide if Novita SA will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.56 |
Good reverse predictability
Novita SA has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novita SA time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novita SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Novita SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.3 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 41.79 |
Novita SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novita SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novita SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novita SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novita SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novita SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novita SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novita SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novita SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novita SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novita SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novita SA stock have on its future price. Novita SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novita SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novita SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novita SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Novita SA
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Novita SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Novita SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Novita Stock
Moving against Novita Stock
| 0.76 | BNP | BNP Paribas Bank | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | MBK | mBank SA | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | ING | ING Bank lski | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | PKN | Polski Koncern Naftowy | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | PEO | Bank Polska Kasa | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Novita SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Novita SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Novita SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Novita SA to buy it.
The correlation of Novita SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Novita SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Novita SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Novita SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Novita Stock Analysis
When running Novita SA's price analysis, check to measure Novita SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novita SA is operating at the current time. Most of Novita SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novita SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novita SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novita SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.