Obayashi (Germany) Market Value
| OBA Stock | EUR 12.40 1.50 10.79% |
| Symbol | Obayashi |
Obayashi 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Obayashi's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Obayashi.
| 09/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Obayashi on September 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Obayashi or generate 0.0% return on investment in Obayashi over 60 days. Obayashi is related to or competes with FIREWEED METALS, Virtus Investment, Genco Shipping, SBM OFFSHORE, REINET INVESTMENTS, and Solstad Offshore. Obayashi Corporation engages in the construction business in Japan, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Oc... More
Obayashi Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Obayashi's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Obayashi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.39 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0177 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.77 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.81 |
Obayashi Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Obayashi's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Obayashi's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Obayashi historical prices to predict the future Obayashi's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0653 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1299 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0157 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.7685 |
Obayashi Backtested Returns
At this point, Obayashi is not too volatile. Obayashi maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0797, which implies the firm had a 0.0797% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Obayashi, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Obayashi's Semi Deviation of 1.74, coefficient of variation of 1299.42, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0653 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Obayashi has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 0.2, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Obayashi's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Obayashi is expected to be smaller as well. Obayashi right now holds a risk of 2.17%. Please check Obayashi mean deviation, downside deviation, standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to decide if Obayashi will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
Obayashi has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Obayashi time series from 29th of September 2024 to 29th of October 2024 and 29th of October 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Obayashi price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Obayashi price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.57 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.82 |
Obayashi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Obayashi stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Obayashi's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Obayashi returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Obayashi has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Obayashi regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Obayashi stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Obayashi stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Obayashi stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Obayashi Lagged Returns
When evaluating Obayashi's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Obayashi stock have on its future price. Obayashi autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Obayashi autocorrelation shows the relationship between Obayashi stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Obayashi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Obayashi Stock
Obayashi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Obayashi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Obayashi with respect to the benefits of owning Obayashi security.