Optimism Market Value
| OP Crypto | USD 2.23 0.02 0.90% |
| Symbol | Optimism |
Optimism 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Optimism's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Optimism.
| 05/28/2024 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Optimism on May 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Optimism or generate 0.0% return on investment in Optimism over 180 days. Optimism is related to or competes with Solana, XRP, Sui, Staked Ether, Toncoin, Worldcoin, and Avalanche. Optimism is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.
Optimism Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Optimism's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Optimism upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.65 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0877 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 25.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.64) | |||
| Potential Upside | 12.66 |
Optimism Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Optimism's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Optimism's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Optimism historical prices to predict the future Optimism's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.092 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6204 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.32) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0979 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.54 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Optimism's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Optimism Backtested Returns
Optimism appears to be unusually risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Optimism maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.15, which implies digital coin had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Optimism's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.91% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate Optimism's Coefficient Of Variation of 921.61, semi deviation of 4.89, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.092 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The crypto holds a Beta of 0.44, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Optimism's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Optimism is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.49 |
Modest reverse predictability
Optimism has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Optimism time series from 28th of May 2024 to 26th of August 2024 and 26th of August 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Optimism price movement. The serial correlation of -0.49 indicates that about 49.0% of current Optimism price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.49 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.4 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
Optimism lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Optimism crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Optimism's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Optimism returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Optimism has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the crypto coin is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Optimism regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Optimism crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Optimism crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Optimism crypto coin over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Optimism Lagged Returns
When evaluating Optimism's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Optimism crypto coin have on its future price. Optimism autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Optimism autocorrelation shows the relationship between Optimism crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Optimism.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Optimism offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Optimism's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Optimism Crypto.Check out Optimism Correlation, Optimism Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Optimism. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Optimism technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.