Origin Energy (Germany) Market Value
| ORL Stock | 6.75 0.10 1.50% |
| Symbol | Origin |
Origin Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Origin Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Origin Energy.
| 07/05/2023 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Origin Energy on July 5, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Origin Energy Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Origin Energy over 510 days. Origin Energy is related to or competes with Taiwan Semiconductor, Beazer Homes, American Homes, NXP Semiconductors, Autohome, and KB HOME. More
Origin Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Origin Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Origin Energy Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1047 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.71 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.69) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.59 |
Origin Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Origin Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Origin Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Origin Energy historical prices to predict the future Origin Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1513 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2566 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0439 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1081 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.92 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Origin Energy Limited Backtested Returns
Origin Energy appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Origin Energy Limited maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.19, which implies the firm had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Origin Energy Limited, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Origin Energy's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1513, semi deviation of 1.0, and Coefficient Of Variation of 521.69 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Origin Energy holds a performance score of 15. The company holds a Beta of 0.14, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Origin Energy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Origin Energy is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Origin Energy's total risk alpha, expected short fall, period momentum indicator, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Origin Energy's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.62 |
Good predictability
Origin Energy Limited has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Origin Energy time series from 5th of July 2023 to 16th of March 2024 and 16th of March 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Origin Energy Limited price movement. The serial correlation of 0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Origin Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.51 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.11 |
Origin Energy Limited lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Origin Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Origin Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Origin Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Origin Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Origin Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Origin Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Origin Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Origin Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Origin Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Origin Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Origin Energy stock have on its future price. Origin Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Origin Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Origin Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Origin Energy Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Origin Stock Analysis
When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.