Provident Agro (Indonesia) Market Value
| PALM Stock | IDR 398.00 2.00 0.51% |
| Symbol | Provident |
Provident Agro 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Provident Agro's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Provident Agro.
| 09/23/2024 |
| 11/22/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Provident Agro on September 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Provident Agro Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Provident Agro over 60 days. Provident Agro is related to or competes with Charoen Pokphand, Kalbe Farma, Indofood Cbp, PT Indofood, and Akr Corporindo. PT Provident Agro Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of palm oil plantations in Indonesia More
Provident Agro Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Provident Agro's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Provident Agro Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.14 |
Provident Agro Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Provident Agro's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Provident Agro's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Provident Agro historical prices to predict the future Provident Agro's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0478 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1035 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.38) |
Provident Agro Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, Provident Stock is very steady. Provident Agro Tbk maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0513, which implies the firm had a 0.0513% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Provident Agro Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Provident Agro's Semi Deviation of 1.35, coefficient of variation of 1799.74, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0478 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0861%. Provident Agro has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of -0.22, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Provident Agro are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Provident Agro is likely to outperform the market. Provident Agro Tbk right now holds a risk of 1.68%. Please check Provident Agro Tbk total risk alpha, treynor ratio, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if Provident Agro Tbk will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.38 |
Poor reverse predictability
Provident Agro Tbk has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Provident Agro time series from 23rd of September 2024 to 23rd of October 2024 and 23rd of October 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Provident Agro Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current Provident Agro price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.38 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 63.61 |
Provident Agro Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Provident Agro stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Provident Agro's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Provident Agro returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Provident Agro has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Provident Agro regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Provident Agro stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Provident Agro stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Provident Agro stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Provident Agro Lagged Returns
When evaluating Provident Agro's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Provident Agro stock have on its future price. Provident Agro autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Provident Agro autocorrelation shows the relationship between Provident Agro stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Provident Agro Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Provident Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Provident Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Provident with respect to the benefits of owning Provident Agro security.