Polen Small Fund Market Value
| PBSYX Fund | USD 16.24 0.17 1.04% |
| Symbol | Polen |
Polen Us 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polen Us' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polen Us.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Polen Us on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polen Small or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polen Us over 30 days. Polen Us is related to or competes with Prnpl Inv, Polen Global, Polen Global, Polen International, Polen International, Polen Growth, and Polen Growth. The fund typically invests in a focused portfolio of common stocks of small companies and, under normal circumstances, i... More
Polen Us Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polen Us' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polen Small upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0567 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.1 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.41) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.19 |
Polen Us Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polen Us' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polen Us' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polen Us historical prices to predict the future Polen Us' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1228 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0267 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0593 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1345 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polen Us' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Polen Small Backtested Returns
Polen Us appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Polen Small maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.16, which implies the entity had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Polen Small, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please evaluate Polen Us' Semi Deviation of 0.9733, coefficient of variation of 644.82, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1228 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The fund holds a Beta of 1.4, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Polen Us will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.96 |
Excellent predictability
Polen Small has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polen Us time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polen Small price movement. The serial correlation of 0.96 indicates that 96.0% of current Polen Us price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.96 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.18 |
Polen Small lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Polen Us mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polen Us' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polen Us returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polen Us has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Polen Us regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polen Us mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polen Us mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polen Us mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Polen Us Lagged Returns
When evaluating Polen Us' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polen Us mutual fund have on its future price. Polen Us autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polen Us autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polen Us mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polen Small.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Polen Mutual Fund
Polen Us financial ratios help investors to determine whether Polen Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Polen with respect to the benefits of owning Polen Us security.
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