Pak Gulf (Pakistan) Market Value
| PGLC Stock | 10.71 0.45 4.39% |
| Symbol | Pak |
Pak Gulf 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Pak Gulf's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Pak Gulf.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Pak Gulf on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Pak Gulf Leasing or generate 0.0% return on investment in Pak Gulf over 30 days. Pak Gulf is related to or competes with Masood Textile, Fauji Foods, KSB Pumps, Mari Petroleum, Loads, Thatta Cement, and KOT Addu. More
Pak Gulf Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Pak Gulf's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Pak Gulf Leasing upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1146 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 21.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.15) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.99 |
Pak Gulf Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Pak Gulf's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Pak Gulf's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Pak Gulf historical prices to predict the future Pak Gulf's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1168 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7519 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1292 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.20) |
Pak Gulf Leasing Backtested Returns
Pak Gulf appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Pak Gulf Leasing maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.12, which implies the firm had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Pak Gulf's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.6% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate Pak Gulf's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1168, semi deviation of 3.55, and Coefficient Of Variation of 707.73 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Pak Gulf holds a performance score of 9. The company holds a Beta of -0.57, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Pak Gulf are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Pak Gulf is likely to outperform the market. Please check Pak Gulf's total risk alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Pak Gulf's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.17 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Pak Gulf Leasing has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Pak Gulf time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Pak Gulf Leasing price movement. The serial correlation of -0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current Pak Gulf price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.17 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.05 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
Pak Gulf Leasing lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Pak Gulf stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Pak Gulf's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Pak Gulf returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Pak Gulf has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Pak Gulf regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Pak Gulf stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Pak Gulf stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Pak Gulf stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Pak Gulf Lagged Returns
When evaluating Pak Gulf's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Pak Gulf stock have on its future price. Pak Gulf autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Pak Gulf autocorrelation shows the relationship between Pak Gulf stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Pak Gulf Leasing.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Pak Gulf
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Pak Gulf position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Pak Gulf will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Pak Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Pak Gulf could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Pak Gulf when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Pak Gulf - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Pak Gulf Leasing to buy it.
The correlation of Pak Gulf is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Pak Gulf moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Pak Gulf Leasing moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Pak Gulf can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Pak Stock
Pak Gulf financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pak Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pak with respect to the benefits of owning Pak Gulf security.