Altria (Germany) Market Value
| PHM7 Stock | EUR 54.44 0.94 1.76% |
| Symbol | Altria |
Altria 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Altria's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Altria.
| 10/25/2024 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Altria on October 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Altria Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Altria over 30 days. Altria is related to or competes with Philip Morris, British American, British American, British American, JAPAN TOBACCO. Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless products, and wine in the Uni... More
Altria Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Altria's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Altria Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.978 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1037 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.77 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.53) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.76 |
Altria Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Altria's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Altria's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Altria historical prices to predict the future Altria's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1566 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2576 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0465 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1464 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 4.97 |
Altria Group Backtested Returns
Altria appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Altria Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Altria Group, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Altria's Downside Deviation of 0.978, mean deviation of 0.8464, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1566 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Altria holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0531, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Altria's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Altria is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Altria's value at risk, downside variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Altria's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.83 |
Very good predictability
Altria Group has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Altria time series from 25th of October 2024 to 9th of November 2024 and 9th of November 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Altria Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current Altria price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.7 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.23 |
Altria Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Altria stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Altria's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Altria returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Altria has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Altria regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Altria stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Altria stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Altria stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Altria Lagged Returns
When evaluating Altria's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Altria stock have on its future price. Altria autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Altria autocorrelation shows the relationship between Altria stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Altria Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Altria Stock
When determining whether Altria Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Altria's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Altria Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Altria Group Stock:Check out Altria Correlation, Altria Volatility and Altria Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Altria. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Altria technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.