Supra Boga (Indonesia) Market Value
| RANC Stock | IDR 492.00 6.00 1.20% |
| Symbol | Supra |
Supra Boga 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Supra Boga's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Supra Boga.
| 09/02/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Supra Boga on September 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Supra Boga Lestari or generate 0.0% return on investment in Supra Boga over 90 days. Supra Boga is related to or competes with Nippon Indosari, Ramayana Lestari, Midi Utama, Hero Supermarket, and Sumber Alfaria. PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk operates supermarkets in Indonesia More
Supra Boga Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Supra Boga's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Supra Boga Lestari upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.92 |
Supra Boga Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Supra Boga's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Supra Boga's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Supra Boga historical prices to predict the future Supra Boga's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.50) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4699 |
Supra Boga Lestari Backtested Returns
Supra Boga Lestari owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0694, which indicates the firm had a -0.0694% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Supra Boga Lestari exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Supra Boga's Variance of 4.62, coefficient of variation of (1,632), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.3, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Supra Boga are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Supra Boga is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Supra Boga Lestari has a negative expected return of -0.15%. Please make sure to validate Supra Boga's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Supra Boga Lestari performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
Supra Boga Lestari has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Supra Boga time series from 2nd of September 2024 to 17th of October 2024 and 17th of October 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Supra Boga Lestari price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current Supra Boga price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.51 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 187.95 |
Supra Boga Lestari lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Supra Boga stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Supra Boga's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Supra Boga returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Supra Boga has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Supra Boga regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Supra Boga stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Supra Boga stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Supra Boga stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Supra Boga Lagged Returns
When evaluating Supra Boga's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Supra Boga stock have on its future price. Supra Boga autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Supra Boga autocorrelation shows the relationship between Supra Boga stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Supra Boga Lestari.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Supra Boga financial ratios help investors to determine whether Supra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Supra with respect to the benefits of owning Supra Boga security.