Refex Industries (India) Market Value
| REFEX Stock | 494.20 23.50 4.99% |
| Symbol | Refex |
Refex Industries 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Refex Industries' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Refex Industries.
| 10/30/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Refex Industries on October 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Refex Industries Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Refex Industries over 30 days. Refex Industries is related to or competes with Parag Milk, Varun Beverages, Hisar Metal, Datamatics Global, Sarthak Metals, NRB Industrial, and Dev Information. Refex Industries is entity of India. It is traded as Stock on NSE exchange. More
Refex Industries Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Refex Industries' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Refex Industries Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1622 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.18 |
Refex Industries Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Refex Industries' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Refex Industries' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Refex Industries historical prices to predict the future Refex Industries' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.157 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.7069 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1609 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2704 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.1 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Refex Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Refex Industries Backtested Returns
Refex Industries appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Refex Industries maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.19, which implies the firm had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Refex Industries' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.76% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate Refex Industries' Coefficient Of Variation of 514.44, semi deviation of 1.91, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.157 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Refex Industries holds a performance score of 15. The company holds a Beta of 0.36, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Refex Industries' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Refex Industries is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Refex Industries' downside variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether Refex Industries' historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.43 |
Modest reverse predictability
Refex Industries Limited has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Refex Industries time series from 30th of October 2024 to 14th of November 2024 and 14th of November 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Refex Industries price movement. The serial correlation of -0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current Refex Industries price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.43 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.3 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 90.8 |
Refex Industries lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Refex Industries stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Refex Industries' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Refex Industries returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Refex Industries has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Refex Industries regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Refex Industries stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Refex Industries stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Refex Industries stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Refex Industries Lagged Returns
When evaluating Refex Industries' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Refex Industries stock have on its future price. Refex Industries autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Refex Industries autocorrelation shows the relationship between Refex Industries stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Refex Industries Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Refex Stock
Refex Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Refex Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Refex with respect to the benefits of owning Refex Industries security.