Sumber Global (Indonesia) Market Value
| SGER Stock | IDR 404.00 16.00 3.81% |
| Symbol | Sumber |
Sumber Global 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Sumber Global's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Sumber Global.
| 08/02/2023 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Sumber Global on August 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Sumber Global Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Sumber Global over 480 days. Sumber Global is related to or competes with Golden Eagle, Baramulti Suksessarana, TBS Energi, Resource Alam, and Saraswanti Anugerah. PT Sumber Global Energy, together with its subsidiaries, engages in coal trading and shipment services in Indonesia More
Sumber Global Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Sumber Global's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Sumber Global Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.79 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.27) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.86 |
Sumber Global Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Sumber Global's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Sumber Global's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Sumber Global historical prices to predict the future Sumber Global's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0081 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0332 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.61) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0271 |
Sumber Global Energy Backtested Returns
Sumber Global Energy owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0037, which indicates the firm had a -0.0037% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Sumber Global Energy exposes thirty different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Sumber Global's Coefficient Of Variation of 1043860.59, semi deviation of 2.04, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0081 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.35, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Sumber Global are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Sumber Global is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Sumber Global Energy has a negative expected return of -0.0142%. Please make sure to validate Sumber Global's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to decide if Sumber Global Energy performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
Sumber Global Energy has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Sumber Global time series from 2nd of August 2023 to 29th of March 2024 and 29th of March 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Sumber Global Energy price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Sumber Global price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.57 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3562.35 |
Sumber Global Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Sumber Global stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Sumber Global's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Sumber Global returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Sumber Global has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Sumber Global regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Sumber Global stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Sumber Global stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Sumber Global stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Sumber Global Lagged Returns
When evaluating Sumber Global's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Sumber Global stock have on its future price. Sumber Global autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Sumber Global autocorrelation shows the relationship between Sumber Global stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Sumber Global Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Sumber Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sumber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sumber with respect to the benefits of owning Sumber Global security.