Micro Silver Futures Commodity Market Value
| SILUSD Commodity | 31.34 0.40 1.29% |
| Symbol | Micro |
Micro Silver 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Micro Silver's commodity what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Micro Silver.
| 12/29/2023 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Micro Silver on December 29, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Micro Silver Futures or generate 0.0% return on investment in Micro Silver over 330 days.
Micro Silver Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Micro Silver's commodity current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Micro Silver Futures upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.42) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.19 |
Micro Silver Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Micro Silver's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Micro Silver's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Micro Silver historical prices to predict the future Micro Silver's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0428 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0898 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.02) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Micro Silver's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Micro Silver Futures Backtested Returns
At this point, Micro Silver is very steady. Micro Silver Futures has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0429, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0429% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Micro Silver, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the commodity. Please verify Micro Silver's Downside Deviation of 1.95, mean deviation of 1.52, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0428 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0851%. The commodity secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0419, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Micro Silver are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Micro Silver is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.71 |
Good predictability
Micro Silver Futures has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Micro Silver time series from 29th of December 2023 to 11th of June 2024 and 11th of June 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Micro Silver Futures price movement. The serial correlation of 0.71 indicates that around 71.0% of current Micro Silver price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.71 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.12 |
Micro Silver Futures lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Micro Silver commodity's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Micro Silver's commodity expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Micro Silver returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Micro Silver has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the commodity is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Micro Silver regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Micro Silver commodity is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Micro Silver commodity is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Micro Silver commodity over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Micro Silver Lagged Returns
When evaluating Micro Silver's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Micro Silver commodity have on its future price. Micro Silver autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Micro Silver autocorrelation shows the relationship between Micro Silver commodity current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Micro Silver Futures.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |