SIMPAR SA (Brazil) Market Value
| SIMH3 Stock | BRL 4.63 0.51 9.92% |
| Symbol | SIMPAR |
SIMPAR SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to SIMPAR SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of SIMPAR SA.
| 08/31/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in SIMPAR SA on August 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding SIMPAR SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in SIMPAR SA over 90 days. SIMPAR SA is related to or competes with Ambipar Participaes, Vamos Locao, Movida Participaes, Petro Rio, and Banco BTG. SIMPAR S.A., through its subsidiaries, provides light vehicle rental, and fleet management and outsourcing services in B... More
SIMPAR SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure SIMPAR SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess SIMPAR SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.46 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.21 |
SIMPAR SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for SIMPAR SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as SIMPAR SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use SIMPAR SA historical prices to predict the future SIMPAR SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.41) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.90) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (20.41) |
SIMPAR SA Backtested Returns
SIMPAR SA owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.12, which indicates the firm had a -0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. SIMPAR SA exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate SIMPAR SA's variance of 10.56, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0202, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, SIMPAR SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding SIMPAR SA is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, SIMPAR SA has a negative expected return of -0.39%. Please make sure to validate SIMPAR SA's value at risk, skewness, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if SIMPAR SA performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | -0.15 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
SIMPAR SA has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between SIMPAR SA time series from 31st of August 2024 to 15th of October 2024 and 15th of October 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of SIMPAR SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.15 indicates that less than 15.0% of current SIMPAR SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.15 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.04 |
SIMPAR SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is SIMPAR SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting SIMPAR SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of SIMPAR SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that SIMPAR SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
SIMPAR SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If SIMPAR SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if SIMPAR SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in SIMPAR SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
SIMPAR SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating SIMPAR SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of SIMPAR SA stock have on its future price. SIMPAR SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, SIMPAR SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between SIMPAR SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in SIMPAR SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for SIMPAR Stock Analysis
When running SIMPAR SA's price analysis, check to measure SIMPAR SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SIMPAR SA is operating at the current time. Most of SIMPAR SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SIMPAR SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SIMPAR SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SIMPAR SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.