Thungela Resources' market value is the price at which a share of Thungela Resources trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Thungela Resources Limited investors about its performance. Thungela Resources is trading at 13101.00 as of the 19th of January 2025, a 0.39 percent increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 12926.0. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Thungela Resources Limited and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Thungela Resources over a given investment horizon. Check out Thungela Resources Correlation, Thungela Resources Volatility and Thungela Resources Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Thungela Resources.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Thungela Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Thungela Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Thungela Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Thungela Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thungela Resources' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thungela Resources.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thungela Resources' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thungela Resources Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thungela Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thungela Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thungela Resources historical prices to predict the future Thungela Resources' volatility.
At this point, Thungela Resources is very steady. Thungela Resources owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0518, which indicates the firm had a 0.0518% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Thungela Resources Limited, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Thungela Resources' Coefficient Of Variation of 1341.16, semi deviation of 1.49, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.068 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0988%. Thungela Resources has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of -0.1, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Thungela Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Thungela Resources is likely to outperform the market. Thungela Resources right now has a risk of 1.91%. Please validate Thungela Resources semi variance, accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and skewness , to decide if Thungela Resources will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation
0.09
Virtually no predictability
Thungela Resources Limited has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thungela Resources time series from 20th of December 2024 to 4th of January 2025 and 4th of January 2025 to 19th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thungela Resources price movement. The serial correlation of 0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current Thungela Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.09
Spearman Rank Test
-0.1
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
12.9 K
Thungela Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thungela Resources stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thungela Resources' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thungela Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thungela Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Thungela Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thungela Resources stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thungela Resources stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thungela Resources stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Thungela Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thungela Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thungela Resources stock have on its future price. Thungela Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thungela Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thungela Resources stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thungela Resources Limited.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Thungela Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thungela Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thungela with respect to the benefits of owning Thungela Resources security.