Thungela Resources (South Africa) Market Value
| TGA Stock | 13,619 148.00 1.08% |
| Symbol | Thungela |
Thungela Resources 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thungela Resources' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thungela Resources.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Thungela Resources on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Thungela Resources Limited or generate 0.0% return on investment in Thungela Resources over 30 days. Thungela Resources is related to or competes with Growthpoint Properties, Bowler Metcalf, Shoprite Holdings, Dis Chem, Impala Platinum, Kap Industrial, and Anglo American. More
Thungela Resources Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thungela Resources' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thungela Resources Limited upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0453 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.24 |
Thungela Resources Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thungela Resources' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thungela Resources' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thungela Resources historical prices to predict the future Thungela Resources' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0906 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2285 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.1) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0533 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.20) |
Thungela Resources Backtested Returns
Thungela Resources appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Thungela Resources owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.14, which indicates the firm had a 0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Thungela Resources Limited, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Thungela Resources' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0906, semi deviation of 1.45, and Coefficient Of Variation of 904.82 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Thungela Resources holds a performance score of 11. The entity has a beta of -0.17, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Thungela Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Thungela Resources is likely to outperform the market. Please check Thungela Resources' semi variance, accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the potential upside and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Thungela Resources' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
Thungela Resources Limited has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thungela Resources time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thungela Resources price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Thungela Resources price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 265.5 K |
Thungela Resources lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thungela Resources stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thungela Resources' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thungela Resources returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thungela Resources has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Thungela Resources regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thungela Resources stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thungela Resources stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thungela Resources stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Thungela Resources Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thungela Resources' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thungela Resources stock have on its future price. Thungela Resources autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thungela Resources autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thungela Resources stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thungela Resources Limited.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Thungela Stock
Thungela Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thungela Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thungela with respect to the benefits of owning Thungela Resources security.