Triumph Group Stock Market Value
| TGI Stock | USD 18.95 0.32 1.66% |
| Symbol | Triumph |
Triumph Group Price To Book Ratio
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Triumph. If investors know Triumph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Triumph listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.31) | Earnings Share (0.16) | Revenue Per Share 15.722 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.01 | Return On Assets 0.0498 |
The market value of Triumph Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Triumph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Triumph's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Triumph's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Triumph's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Triumph's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Triumph's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Triumph is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Triumph's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Triumph 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Triumph's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Triumph.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Triumph on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Triumph Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Triumph over 30 days. Triumph is related to or competes with Mercury Systems, Curtiss Wright, Hexcel, Ducommun Incorporated, Park Electrochemical, National Presto, and Astronics. Triumph Group, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, repairs, overhauls, and distributes aerostructures, aircraft compo... More
Triumph Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Triumph's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Triumph Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1131 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.53) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.23 |
Triumph Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Triumph's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Triumph's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Triumph historical prices to predict the future Triumph's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1187 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4245 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1756 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.416 |
Triumph Group Backtested Returns
Triumph appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Triumph Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.15, which indicates the firm had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Triumph's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.62% is justified by implied risk. Please review Triumph's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1187, semi deviation of 2.26, and Coefficient Of Variation of 694.12 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Triumph holds a performance score of 11. The entity has a beta of 1.44, which indicates a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Triumph will likely underperform. Please check Triumph's semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Triumph's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.45 |
Average predictability
Triumph Group has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Triumph time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Triumph Group price movement. The serial correlation of 0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current Triumph price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.45 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.67 |
Triumph Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Triumph stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Triumph's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Triumph returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Triumph has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Triumph regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Triumph stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Triumph stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Triumph stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Triumph Lagged Returns
When evaluating Triumph's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Triumph stock have on its future price. Triumph autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Triumph autocorrelation shows the relationship between Triumph stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Triumph Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Triumph Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Triumph's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Triumph Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Triumph Group Stock:Check out Triumph Correlation, Triumph Volatility and Triumph Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Triumph. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Triumph technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.