Tesla (Germany) Market Value
| TL0 Stock | 321.50 3.70 1.16% |
| Symbol | Tesla |
Tesla 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tesla's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tesla.
| 09/02/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
Tesla Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tesla's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tesla Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1816 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 22.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.85) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.64 |
Tesla Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tesla's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tesla's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tesla historical prices to predict the future Tesla's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1727 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.8365 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1873 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2787 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.49 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tesla's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Tesla Inc Backtested Returns
Tesla appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Tesla Inc owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.21, which indicates the firm had a 0.21% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Tesla's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.86% is justified by implied risk. Please review Tesla's Semi Deviation of 2.09, risk adjusted performance of 0.1727, and Coefficient Of Variation of 464.46 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Tesla holds a performance score of 16. The entity has a beta of 0.25, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Tesla's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tesla is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Tesla's kurtosis, market facilitation index, and the relationship between the semi variance and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Tesla's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.67 |
Good predictability
Tesla Inc has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tesla time series from 2nd of September 2024 to 17th of October 2024 and 17th of October 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tesla Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Tesla price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.52 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2336.07 |
Tesla Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tesla stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tesla's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tesla returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tesla has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tesla regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tesla stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tesla stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tesla stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tesla Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tesla's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tesla stock have on its future price. Tesla autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tesla autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tesla stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tesla Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Tesla Stock Analysis
When running Tesla's price analysis, check to measure Tesla's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tesla is operating at the current time. Most of Tesla's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tesla's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tesla's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tesla to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.