Municipal Bond Fund Market Value
| TMUUX Fund | USD 8.66 0.01 0.12% |
| Symbol | Municipal |
Municipal Bond 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Municipal Bond's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Municipal Bond.
| 05/31/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Municipal Bond on May 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Municipal Bond Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Municipal Bond over 180 days. Municipal Bond is related to or competes with Vanguard Long-term, Vanguard High-yield, Vanguard High-yield, Strategic Advisers, Vanguard Long-term, Franklin Federal, and Franklin Federal. The fund will invest, under normal market conditions, at least 80 percent of its net assets in tax exempt general obliga... More
Municipal Bond Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Municipal Bond's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Municipal Bond Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.3792 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.54) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.23) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3484 |
Municipal Bond Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Municipal Bond's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Municipal Bond's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Municipal Bond historical prices to predict the future Municipal Bond's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 9.0E-4 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.32) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.07) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Municipal Bond's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Municipal Bond Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Municipal Mutual Fund to be very steady. Municipal Bond has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0408, which conveys that the entity had a 0.0408% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Municipal Bond, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Municipal Bond's Downside Deviation of 0.3792, mean deviation of 0.1327, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 9.0E-4 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0095%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.041, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Municipal Bond's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Municipal Bond is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.51 |
Good reverse predictability
Municipal Bond Fund has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Municipal Bond time series from 31st of May 2024 to 29th of August 2024 and 29th of August 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Municipal Bond price movement. The serial correlation of -0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current Municipal Bond price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.58 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Municipal Bond lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Municipal Bond mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Municipal Bond's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Municipal Bond returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Municipal Bond has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Municipal Bond regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Municipal Bond mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Municipal Bond mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Municipal Bond mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Municipal Bond Lagged Returns
When evaluating Municipal Bond's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Municipal Bond mutual fund have on its future price. Municipal Bond autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Municipal Bond autocorrelation shows the relationship between Municipal Bond mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Municipal Bond Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Municipal Mutual Fund
Municipal Bond financial ratios help investors to determine whether Municipal Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Municipal with respect to the benefits of owning Municipal Bond security.
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