PT Cerestar (Indonesia) Market Value
| TRGU Stock | 210.00 2.00 0.94% |
| Symbol | TRGU |
PT Cerestar 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Cerestar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Cerestar.
| 12/01/2023 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Cerestar on December 1, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Cerestar Indonesia or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Cerestar over 360 days. PT Cerestar is related to or competes with Autopedia Sukses, PT Dewi, PT Cilacap, PT Sari, and Habco Trans. More
PT Cerestar Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Cerestar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Cerestar Indonesia upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.81 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.52 |
PT Cerestar Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Cerestar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Cerestar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Cerestar historical prices to predict the future PT Cerestar's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0654 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0713 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.61 |
PT Cerestar Indonesia Backtested Returns
As of now, TRGU Stock is very steady. PT Cerestar Indonesia retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0771, which implies the firm had a 0.0771% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for PT Cerestar, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check PT Cerestar's market risk adjusted performance of 1.62, and Standard Deviation of 1.07 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0817%. PT Cerestar has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.048, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, PT Cerestar's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding PT Cerestar is expected to be smaller as well. PT Cerestar Indonesia at this moment owns a risk of 1.06%. Please check PT Cerestar Indonesia market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if PT Cerestar Indonesia will be following its current price history.
Auto-correlation | -0.11 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
PT Cerestar Indonesia has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Cerestar time series from 1st of December 2023 to 29th of May 2024 and 29th of May 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Cerestar Indonesia price movement. The serial correlation of -0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current PT Cerestar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.11 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.02 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 21.1 |
PT Cerestar Indonesia lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Cerestar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Cerestar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Cerestar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Cerestar has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Cerestar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Cerestar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Cerestar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Cerestar stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Cerestar Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Cerestar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Cerestar stock have on its future price. PT Cerestar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Cerestar autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Cerestar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Cerestar Indonesia.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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PT Cerestar financial ratios help investors to determine whether TRGU Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in TRGU with respect to the benefits of owning PT Cerestar security.