Trainline Plc (UK) Market Value
| TRN Stock | 416.00 9.60 2.36% |
| Symbol | Trainline |
Trainline Plc 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Trainline Plc's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Trainline Plc.
| 01/31/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Trainline Plc on January 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Trainline Plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Trainline Plc over 300 days. Trainline Plc is related to or competes with Hochschild Mining, Anglesey Mining, Dolly Varden, Fair Oaks, Systemair, Pentair PLC, and Beowulf Mining. Trainline Plc is entity of United Kingdom More
Trainline Plc Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Trainline Plc's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Trainline Plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1691 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.46 |
Trainline Plc Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Trainline Plc's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Trainline Plc's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Trainline Plc historical prices to predict the future Trainline Plc's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1801 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4409 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1495 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.258 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.1 |
Trainline Plc Backtested Returns
Trainline Plc appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Trainline Plc owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.23, which indicates the firm had a 0.23% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Trainline Plc's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.52% is justified by implied risk. Please review Trainline Plc's Coefficient Of Variation of 440.38, semi deviation of 0.916, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1801 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Trainline Plc holds a performance score of 18. The entity has a beta of 0.45, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Trainline Plc's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Trainline Plc is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Trainline Plc's maximum drawdown, skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to make a quick decision on whether Trainline Plc's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.47 |
Modest reverse predictability
Trainline Plc has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Trainline Plc time series from 31st of January 2024 to 29th of June 2024 and 29th of June 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Trainline Plc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current Trainline Plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.47 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1095.8 |
Trainline Plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Trainline Plc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Trainline Plc's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Trainline Plc returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Trainline Plc has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Trainline Plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Trainline Plc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Trainline Plc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Trainline Plc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Trainline Plc Lagged Returns
When evaluating Trainline Plc's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Trainline Plc stock have on its future price. Trainline Plc autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Trainline Plc autocorrelation shows the relationship between Trainline Plc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Trainline Plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Trainline Stock
Trainline Plc financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trainline Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trainline with respect to the benefits of owning Trainline Plc security.