Tsogo Sun (South Africa) Market Value
| TSG Stock | 1,180 5.00 0.43% |
| Symbol | Tsogo |
Tsogo Sun 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tsogo Sun's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tsogo Sun.
| 01/31/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tsogo Sun on January 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tsogo Sun or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tsogo Sun over 300 days. Tsogo Sun is related to or competes with Capitec Bank, Reinet Investments, Astoria Investments, and Zeder Investments. More
Tsogo Sun Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tsogo Sun's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tsogo Sun upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.18 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.15 |
Tsogo Sun Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tsogo Sun's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tsogo Sun's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tsogo Sun historical prices to predict the future Tsogo Sun's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0218 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0804 |
Tsogo Sun Backtested Returns
At this point, Tsogo Sun is very steady. Tsogo Sun owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0127, which indicates the firm had a 0.0127% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Tsogo Sun, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please validate Tsogo Sun's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0218, coefficient of variation of 4518.94, and Semi Deviation of 1.22 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0192%. Tsogo Sun has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The entity has a beta of 0.28, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Tsogo Sun's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tsogo Sun is expected to be smaller as well. Tsogo Sun right now has a risk of 1.51%. Please validate Tsogo Sun sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to decide if Tsogo Sun will be following its existing price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.36 |
Poor reverse predictability
Tsogo Sun has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tsogo Sun time series from 31st of January 2024 to 29th of June 2024 and 29th of June 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tsogo Sun price movement. The serial correlation of -0.36 indicates that just about 36.0% of current Tsogo Sun price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.36 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3318.17 |
Tsogo Sun lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tsogo Sun stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tsogo Sun's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tsogo Sun returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tsogo Sun has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tsogo Sun regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tsogo Sun stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tsogo Sun stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tsogo Sun stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tsogo Sun Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tsogo Sun's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tsogo Sun stock have on its future price. Tsogo Sun autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tsogo Sun autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tsogo Sun stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tsogo Sun.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Tsogo Stock
Tsogo Sun financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tsogo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tsogo with respect to the benefits of owning Tsogo Sun security.