Turkiye Petrol (Turkey) Market Value
| TUPRS Stock | TRY 146.40 1.50 1.04% |
| Symbol | Turkiye |
Turkiye Petrol 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Turkiye Petrol's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Turkiye Petrol.
| 10/24/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Turkiye Petrol on October 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri or generate 0.0% return on investment in Turkiye Petrol over 30 days. Turkiye Petrol is related to or competes with Eregli Demir, Turkiye Sise, Turkish Airlines, Petkim Petrokimya, and Aselsan Elektronik. Trkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the refining crude oil, petroleum, and chemi... More
Turkiye Petrol Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Turkiye Petrol's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.12) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.66 |
Turkiye Petrol Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Turkiye Petrol's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Turkiye Petrol's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Turkiye Petrol historical prices to predict the future Turkiye Petrol's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.30) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Turkiye Petrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Turkiye Petrol Rafin Backtested Returns
Turkiye Petrol Rafin owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0154, which indicates the firm had a -0.0154% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Turkiye Petrol's Coefficient Of Variation of (2,290), variance of 2.28, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.26, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Turkiye Petrol's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Turkiye Petrol is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Turkiye Petrol Rafin has a negative expected return of -0.0237%. Please make sure to validate Turkiye Petrol's maximum drawdown, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the Daily Balance Of Power and relative strength index , to decide if Turkiye Petrol Rafin performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.11 |
Insignificant predictability
Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri has insignificant predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Turkiye Petrol time series from 24th of October 2024 to 8th of November 2024 and 8th of November 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Turkiye Petrol Rafin price movement. The serial correlation of 0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current Turkiye Petrol price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.11 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.31 |
Turkiye Petrol Rafin lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Turkiye Petrol stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Turkiye Petrol's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Turkiye Petrol returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Turkiye Petrol has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Turkiye Petrol regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Turkiye Petrol stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Turkiye Petrol stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Turkiye Petrol stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Turkiye Petrol Lagged Returns
When evaluating Turkiye Petrol's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Turkiye Petrol stock have on its future price. Turkiye Petrol autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Turkiye Petrol autocorrelation shows the relationship between Turkiye Petrol stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Turkiye Stock
Turkiye Petrol financial ratios help investors to determine whether Turkiye Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Turkiye with respect to the benefits of owning Turkiye Petrol security.