UMEME (Uganda) Market Value
| UMEM Stock | 420.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | UMEME |
UMEME 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to UMEME's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of UMEME.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in UMEME on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding UMEME LIMITED or generate 0.0% return on investment in UMEME over 30 days.
UMEME Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure UMEME's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess UMEME LIMITED upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.17) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.02 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.76) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.79 |
UMEME Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for UMEME's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as UMEME's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use UMEME historical prices to predict the future UMEME's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.13) |
UMEME LIMITED Backtested Returns
UMEME LIMITED owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0319, which indicates the firm had a -0.0319% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. UMEME LIMITED exposes eighteen different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate UMEME's variance of 1.06, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.45, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, UMEME's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding UMEME is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, UMEME LIMITED has a negative expected return of -0.0331%. Please make sure to validate UMEME's variance, jensen alpha, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and maximum drawdown , to decide if UMEME LIMITED performance from the past will be repeated at future time.
Auto-correlation | 0.27 |
Poor predictability
UMEME LIMITED has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between UMEME time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of UMEME LIMITED price movement. The serial correlation of 0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current UMEME price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.8 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.17 |
UMEME LIMITED lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is UMEME stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting UMEME's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of UMEME returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that UMEME has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
UMEME regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If UMEME stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if UMEME stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in UMEME stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
UMEME Lagged Returns
When evaluating UMEME's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of UMEME stock have on its future price. UMEME autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, UMEME autocorrelation shows the relationship between UMEME stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in UMEME LIMITED.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for UMEME Stock Analysis
When running UMEME's price analysis, check to measure UMEME's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UMEME is operating at the current time. Most of UMEME's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UMEME's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UMEME's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UMEME to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.