Universal Music's market value is the price at which a share of Universal Music trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Universal Music Group investors about its performance. Universal Music is trading at 22.54 as of the 24th of November 2024. This is a 0.67% up since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 22.39. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Universal Music Group and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Universal Music over a given investment horizon. Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
Symbol
Universal
Universal Music 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Universal Music's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Universal Music.
0.00
09/25/2024
No Change 0.00
0.0
In 2 months and 2 days
11/24/2024
0.00
If you would invest 0.00 in Universal Music on September 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Universal Music Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Universal Music over 60 days.
Universal Music Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Universal Music's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Universal Music Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Universal Music's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Universal Music's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Universal Music historical prices to predict the future Universal Music's volatility.
Universal Music Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0134, which indicates the firm had a -0.0134% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Universal Music Group exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Universal Music's Variance of 1.65, risk adjusted performance of (0.01), and Coefficient Of Variation of (5,870) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0783, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Universal Music's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Universal Music is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Universal Music Group has a negative expected return of -0.0172%. Please make sure to validate Universal Music's accumulation distribution, and the relationship between the value at risk and day typical price , to decide if Universal Music Group performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation
-0.45
Modest reverse predictability
Universal Music Group has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Universal Music time series from 25th of September 2024 to 25th of October 2024 and 25th of October 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Universal Music Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current Universal Music price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.45
Spearman Rank Test
-0.59
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
0.21
Universal Music Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Universal Music stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Universal Music's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Universal Music returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Universal Music has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Universal Music regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Universal Music stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Universal Music stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Universal Music stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Universal Music Lagged Returns
When evaluating Universal Music's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Universal Music stock have on its future price. Universal Music autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Universal Music autocorrelation shows the relationship between Universal Music stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Universal Music Group.