Smurfit Kappa Group Market Value
| 832724AB4 | 102.39 0.12 0.12% |
| Symbol | Smurfit |
Smurfit 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Smurfit's bond what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Smurfit.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Smurfit on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Smurfit Kappa Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Smurfit over 30 days. Smurfit is related to or competes with Sun Country, Cumulus Media, IPG Photonics, FormFactor, Semtech, Mesa Air, and Lindblad Expeditions. More
Smurfit Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Smurfit's bond current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Smurfit Kappa Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.58) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.23 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4186 |
Smurfit Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Smurfit's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Smurfit's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Smurfit historical prices to predict the future Smurfit's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.19) |
Smurfit Kappa Group Backtested Returns
Smurfit Kappa Group owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.1, which indicates the bond had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Smurfit Kappa Group exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Smurfit's Coefficient Of Variation of (6,641), variance of 0.0602, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0738, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Smurfit's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Smurfit is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.54 |
Good reverse predictability
Smurfit Kappa Group has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Smurfit time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Smurfit Kappa Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Smurfit price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Smurfit Kappa Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Smurfit bond's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Smurfit's bond expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Smurfit returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Smurfit has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the bond is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Smurfit regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Smurfit bond is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Smurfit bond is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Smurfit bond over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Smurfit Lagged Returns
When evaluating Smurfit's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Smurfit bond have on its future price. Smurfit autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Smurfit autocorrelation shows the relationship between Smurfit bond current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Smurfit Kappa Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Smurfit Bond
Smurfit financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smurfit Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smurfit with respect to the benefits of owning Smurfit security.