Vanguard California Long Term Fund Market Value
| VCITX Fund | USD 11.52 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard California 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard California's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard California.
| 11/29/2023 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard California on November 29, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard California Long Term or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard California over 360 days. Vanguard California is related to or competes with Vanguard California, Vanguard Long-term, Vanguard High-yield, Vanguard California, and Vanguard Short. The fund invests primarily in high-quality municipal bonds issued by California state and local governments, as well as ... More
Vanguard California Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard California's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard California Long Term upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.402 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.46) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.43) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.349 |
Vanguard California Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard California's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard California's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard California historical prices to predict the future Vanguard California's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0013 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.08) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard California's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard California Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Vanguard Mutual Fund to be very steady. Vanguard California owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0262, which indicates the fund had a 0.0262% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Vanguard California Long Term, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard California's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0013, semi deviation of 0.2561, and Coefficient Of Variation of 3869.33 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0071%. The entity has a beta of 0.0382, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard California's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard California is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Vanguard California Long Term has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard California time series from 29th of November 2023 to 27th of May 2024 and 27th of May 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard California price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Vanguard California price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Vanguard California lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard California mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard California's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard California returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard California has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard California regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard California mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard California mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard California mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard California Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard California's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard California mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard California autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard California autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard California mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard California Long Term.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund
Vanguard California financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard California security.
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets |