Ultimus Managers Trust Fund Market Value
| WWMCX Fund | USD 11.65 0.13 1.13% |
| Symbol | Ultimus |
Ultimus Managers 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultimus Managers' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultimus Managers.
| 02/11/2023 |
| 01/31/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultimus Managers on February 11, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultimus Managers Trust or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultimus Managers over 720 days. Ultimus Managers is related to or competes with Franklin Adjustable, Gamco Global, Hartford Municipal, Ishares Municipal, California Municipal, and Jpmorgan Ultra-short. More
Ultimus Managers Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultimus Managers' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultimus Managers Trust upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.14) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.13 |
Ultimus Managers Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultimus Managers' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultimus Managers' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultimus Managers historical prices to predict the future Ultimus Managers' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultimus Managers' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultimus Managers Trust Backtested Returns
Ultimus Managers Trust owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.044, which indicates the fund had a -0.044 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ultimus Managers Trust exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Ultimus Managers' Variance of 1.06, coefficient of variation of (2,271), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.62, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ultimus Managers' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ultimus Managers is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.16 |
Very weak predictability
Ultimus Managers Trust has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultimus Managers time series from 11th of February 2023 to 6th of February 2024 and 6th of February 2024 to 31st of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultimus Managers Trust price movement. The serial correlation of 0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current Ultimus Managers price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.16 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.21 |
Ultimus Managers Trust lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultimus Managers mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultimus Managers' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultimus Managers returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultimus Managers has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultimus Managers regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultimus Managers mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultimus Managers mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultimus Managers mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultimus Managers Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultimus Managers' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultimus Managers mutual fund have on its future price. Ultimus Managers autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultimus Managers autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultimus Managers mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultimus Managers Trust.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ultimus Mutual Fund
Ultimus Managers financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultimus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultimus with respect to the benefits of owning Ultimus Managers security.
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