Carpenter Technology (Germany) Market Value
| XTY Stock | EUR 182.00 8.00 4.60% |
| Symbol | Carpenter |
Carpenter Technology 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Carpenter Technology's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Carpenter Technology.
| 08/28/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Carpenter Technology on August 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carpenter Technology or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carpenter Technology over 90 days. Carpenter Technology is related to or competes with KENNAMETAL INC, Jacquet Metal, SLR Investment, REINET INVESTMENTS, Harmony Gold, and MGIC INVESTMENT. Carpenter Technology Corporation manufactures, fabricates, and distributes specialty metals worldwide More
Carpenter Technology Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Carpenter Technology's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Carpenter Technology upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1457 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.52 |
Carpenter Technology Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Carpenter Technology's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Carpenter Technology's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Carpenter Technology historical prices to predict the future Carpenter Technology's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1513 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3895 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0898 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1473 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3902 |
Carpenter Technology Backtested Returns
Carpenter Technology appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Carpenter Technology secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Carpenter Technology's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.58% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Carpenter Technology's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1513, downside deviation of 2.99, and Mean Deviation of 2.14 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Carpenter Technology holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.43, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Carpenter Technology will likely underperform. Please check Carpenter Technology's maximum drawdown, semi variance, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and skewness , to make a quick decision on whether Carpenter Technology's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.86 |
Very good predictability
Carpenter Technology has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carpenter Technology time series from 28th of August 2024 to 12th of October 2024 and 12th of October 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carpenter Technology price movement. The serial correlation of 0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current Carpenter Technology price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.82 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 174.98 |
Carpenter Technology lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Carpenter Technology stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Carpenter Technology's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Carpenter Technology returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Carpenter Technology has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Carpenter Technology regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Carpenter Technology stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Carpenter Technology stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Carpenter Technology stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Carpenter Technology Lagged Returns
When evaluating Carpenter Technology's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Carpenter Technology stock have on its future price. Carpenter Technology autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Carpenter Technology autocorrelation shows the relationship between Carpenter Technology stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Carpenter Technology.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Carpenter Stock
When determining whether Carpenter Technology is a strong investment it is important to analyze Carpenter Technology's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Carpenter Technology's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Carpenter Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Carpenter Technology Correlation, Carpenter Technology Volatility and Carpenter Technology Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Carpenter Technology. For more detail on how to invest in Carpenter Stock please use our How to Invest in Carpenter Technology guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Carpenter Technology technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.