Ontrak Inc Stock Price Prediction
| OTRK Stock | USD 1.80 0.05 2.70% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
37
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.41) | Wall Street Target Price 4 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.56) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) |
Using Ontrak hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ontrak Inc from the perspective of Ontrak response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ontrak to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ontrak because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ontrak after-hype prediction price | USD 1.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ontrak |
Ontrak After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ontrak at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ontrak or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ontrak, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ontrak Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ontrak's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ontrak's historical news coverage. Ontrak's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 9.97, respectively. We have considered Ontrak's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ontrak is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ontrak Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ontrak Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ontrak is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ontrak backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ontrak, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.47 | 8.24 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.80 | 1.73 | 3.89 |
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Ontrak Hype Timeline
Ontrak Inc is now traded for 1.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ontrak is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -3.89%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Ontrak is about 29428.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.79. About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Ontrak Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 31.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of April 2017. The firm had 1:15 split on the 23rd of September 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Ontrak Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ontrak Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ontrak's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ontrak's future price movements. Getting to know how Ontrak's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ontrak may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMWL | American Well Corp | 0.16 | 9 per month | 3.08 | 0.06 | 5.91 | (5.38) | 18.59 | |
| ROOT | Root Inc | 0.16 | 8 per month | 2.65 | 0.16 | 8.58 | (5.27) | 76.67 | |
| GDRX | Goodrx Holdings | 0.17 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.89 | (4.74) | 20.58 | |
| BIGC | Bigcommerce Holdings | 0.06 | 7 per month | 1.81 | 0.09 | 7.47 | (3.31) | 13.63 | |
| EXPI | eXp World Holdings | (0.69) | 11 per month | 2.15 | 0.02 | 6.04 | (4.28) | 15.18 |
Ontrak Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ontrak price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ontrak using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ontrak charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ontrak Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ontrak stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ontrak Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ontrak based on analysis of Ontrak hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ontrak's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ontrak's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.005088 | 0.0175 | 0.0157 | 0.0165 | Price To Sales Ratio | 20.92 | 8.84 | 5.27 | 5.01 |
Story Coverage note for Ontrak
The number of cover stories for Ontrak depends on current market conditions and Ontrak's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ontrak is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ontrak's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ontrak Short Properties
Ontrak's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ontrak's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ontrak Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ontrak's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ontrak's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 11.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.7 M |
Check out Ontrak Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ontrak. If investors know Ontrak will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ontrak listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share 31.91 | Revenue Per Share 4.585 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.17) | Return On Assets (0.45) | Return On Equity (3.41) |
The market value of Ontrak Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ontrak that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ontrak's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ontrak's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ontrak's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ontrak's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ontrak's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ontrak is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ontrak's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.