Ontrak Inc Stock Analysis

OTRK Stock  USD 1.80  0.05  2.70%   
Ontrak Inc is undervalued with Real Value of 2.11 and Target Price of 2.5. The main objective of Ontrak stock analysis is to determine its intrinsic value, which is an estimate of what Ontrak Inc is worth, separate from its market price. There are two main types of Ontrak's stock analysis: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
The Ontrak stock is traded in the USA on NASDAQ Exchange, with the market opening at 09:30:00 and closing at 16:00:00 every Mon,Tue,Wed,Thu,Fri except for officially observed holidays in the USA.
  
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Ontrak Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.

Ontrak Stock Analysis Notes

About 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Ontrak Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 31.91. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of April 2017. The firm had 1:15 split on the 23rd of September 2024. Ontrak, Inc. operates as an artificial intelligence powered, telehealth-enabled, and virtualized healthcare company that provides in-person services to health plans and other third-party payors in the United States. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Henderson, Nevada. Ontrak operates under Health Information Services classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 231 people. To find out more about Ontrak Inc contact Terren Peizer at 310 444 4300 or learn more at https://www.ontrakhealth.com.

Ontrak Quarterly Total Revenue

2.57 Million

Ontrak Inc Investment Alerts

Ontrak Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ontrak Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Ontrak Inc may become a speculative penny stock
Ontrak Inc has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 12.74 M. Net Loss for the year was (27.92 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 7.05 M.
Ontrak Inc currently holds about 10.05 M in cash with (15.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.39.
Ontrak Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 46.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC Acquires New Stake in Ontrak Inc

Ontrak Inc Upcoming and Recent Events

20th of March 2024
Upcoming Quarterly Report
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8th of May 2024
Next Financial Report
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31st of December 2023
Next Fiscal Quarter End
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20th of March 2024
Next Fiscal Year End
View
30th of September 2023
Last Quarter Report
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31st of December 2022
Last Financial Announcement
View

Ontrak Largest EPS Surprises

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Ontrak's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2015-03-31
2014-12-31-0.05-0.040.0120 
2017-11-14
2017-09-30-0.17-0.19-0.0211 
2017-08-15
2017-06-30-0.2-0.22-0.0210 
View All Earnings Estimates

Ontrak Stock Institutional Investors

Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Pfs Partners, Llc2024-09-30
138
Qube Research & Technologies2024-06-30
10.0
Royal Bank Of Canada2024-06-30
7.0
Capital Advisors, Ltd. Llc2024-09-30
5.0
Comerica Bank2024-09-30
4.0
Richard W Paul & Associates Llc2024-09-30
2.0
Wells Fargo & Co2024-06-30
0.0
Fmr Inc2024-06-30
0.0
Hudson Bay Capital Management Lp2024-06-30
0.0
Ubs Group Ag2024-06-30
34.2 K
State Street Corp2024-06-30
32 K
Note, although Ontrak's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Ontrak Market Capitalization

The company currently falls under 'Nano-Cap' category with a current market capitalization of 7.8 M.

Ontrak Profitablity

The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (2.23) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of (1.65) %, which suggests for every $100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating loss of $1.65.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets(1.99)(2.09)
Return On Capital Employed(1.30)(1.36)
Return On Assets(1.41)(1.48)
Return On Equity(1.96)(2.05)

Management Efficiency

Ontrak Inc has return on total asset (ROA) of (0.4518) % which means that it has lost $0.4518 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (3.4091) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Ontrak's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Ontrak manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The value of Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to slide to -2.09. The value of Return On Capital Employed is expected to slide to -1.36. Liabilities And Stockholders Equity is expected to rise to about 30.3 M this year, although the value of Total Current Liabilities will most likely fall to about 3.7 M.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share 1.28  1.21 
Tangible Book Value Per Share 0.76  0.72 
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA(4.10)(3.90)
Price Book Value Ratio 4.71  4.47 
Enterprise Value Multiple(4.10)(3.90)
Price Fair Value 4.71  4.47 
Enterprise Value121 M115 M
The strategic initiatives led by Ontrak's management are central to its market success. By analyzing these initiatives, we provide a clear picture of the stock's growth prospects.
Operating Margin
(1.65)
Profit Margin
(2.23)
Beta
2.6
Return On Assets
(0.45)
Return On Equity
(3.41)

Technical Drivers

As of the 1st of December, Ontrak holds the Coefficient Of Variation of (1,457), risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Variance of 66.43. Compared to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model allows you to check existing technical drivers of Ontrak, as well as the relationship between them.

Ontrak Inc Price Movement Analysis

Execute Study
The output start index for this execution was nine with a total number of output elements of fifty-two. The Bollinger Bands is very popular indicator that was developed by John Bollinger. It consist of three lines. Ontrak middle band is a simple moving average of its typical price. The upper and lower bands are (N) standard deviations above and below the middle band. The bands widen and narrow when the volatility of the price is higher or lower, respectively. The upper and lower bands can also be interpreted as price targets for Ontrak Inc. When the price bounces off of the lower band and crosses the middle band, then the upper band becomes the price target.

Ontrak Inc Insider Trading Activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Ontrak insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Ontrak's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Ontrak insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

Ontrak Outstanding Bonds

Ontrak issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. Ontrak Inc uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most Ontrak bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Ontrak Inc has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

Ontrak Predictive Daily Indicators

Ontrak intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Ontrak stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

Ontrak Forecast Models

Ontrak's time-series forecasting models are one of many Ontrak's stock analysis techniques aimed at predicting future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Ontrak's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

About Ontrak Stock Analysis

Stock analysis is the technique used by a trader or investor to examine and evaluate how Ontrak prices is reacting to, or reflecting on a current market direction and economic conditions. It can be used to make informed decisions about market timing, and when buying or selling Ontrak shares will generate the highest return on investment. We also built our stock analysis module to help investors to gain an insight into the world economy as a whole, the stock market, thematic ideas. a specific sector, or an individual Stock such as Ontrak. By using and applying Ontrak Stock analysis, traders can create a robust methodology for identifying Ontrak entry and exit points for their positions.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Pretax Profit Margin(2.20)(2.31)
Operating Profit Margin(1.62)(1.70)
Net Loss(2.19)(2.30)
Gross Profit Margin 0.69  0.73 

Current Ontrak Analysis - Recommendations

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Ontrak analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Ontrak analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target PriceAdvice# of Analysts
2.5Buy1Odds
Ontrak Inc current and past analyst recommendations published by a number of research institutions as well as average analyst consensus.
Most Ontrak analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Ontrak stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Ontrak Inc, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Ontrak conference calls.
Ontrak Analyst Advice Details

Ontrak Stock Analysis Indicators

Ontrak Inc stock analysis indicators help investors evaluate how Ontrak stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing and determine when trading Ontrak shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying Ontrak stock analysis, traders can identify Ontrak position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Begin Period Cash Flow9.7 M
Long Term Debt1.5 M
Common Stock Shares Outstanding11.2 M
Total Stockholder Equity14.3 M
Tax Provision-132 K
Property Plant And Equipment Net1.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments9.7 M
Cash9.7 M
Accounts Payable563 K
Net Debt-8 M
50 Day M A2.0978
Total Current Liabilities3.9 M
Other Operating Expenses33.4 M
Non Current Assets Total7.2 M
Non Currrent Assets Other275 K
Stock Based Compensation2.9 M
When determining whether Ontrak Inc is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Ontrak Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Ontrak Inc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Ontrak Inc Stock:
Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Ontrak Inc. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in metropolitan statistical area.
You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ontrak. If investors know Ontrak will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ontrak listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
31.91
Revenue Per Share
4.585
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.17)
Return On Assets
(0.45)
Return On Equity
(3.41)
The market value of Ontrak Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ontrak that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ontrak's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ontrak's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ontrak's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ontrak's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ontrak's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ontrak is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ontrak's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.